Pick #1 – Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets
Well its another wild wednesday in the NBA and tonight were gearing up the bankroll to throwdown on the Miami Heat (5-10) at Denver Nuggets (7-10) and we get two teams giving it there are all every night to get the season back on track. The sharp money has shown its steam causing this opening NBA 204 over / under line up to a 206 and is our first hint as to why the OVER play is extremely appealing. Following the steam and chugging along with more facts and stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games and with Goran Dragic back the pace and offense is only moving quicker which is throwing off the odds makers. On top of this the total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home so we are simply getting two teams playing at incredible tempos that are currently baffeling the lines. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 203.06 and 207.14 respectively so were counting on the lack of defense and surging offenses to be the key factors here. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a mark 20-14 so again we gain value on the side were betting based on current trends. When it comes to pace of play Denver is 5th in the league overall and anytime we get a top 5 team in a favorable spot we have to feel great about taking the OVER. Even more promising is that the Nuggets are 3rd in posessions per game and the Knicks rank 30 (dropping quickly) so this game should be to slow to justify this total. The public consensus for this game is 77% in favor of the OVER so even the public is seeing the same signs that we are. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 210 so all systems are go when it comes to building confidence in this 206 OVER bringing it home for us. Game Time: Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets - Wednesday, November 30, 2016 9:05 PM Spread: 515 Miami Heat +6½ -110 +220 516 Denver Nuggets -6½ -110 -260 Total: 515 Miami Heat Over 206 -110 516 Denver Nuggets Under 206 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 206 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards
Starting off the week we get a nice night NBA games as we set our sights on the Sacramento Kings (7-10) versus the Washington Wizards (5-10) in a contest of two average teams just trying to improve. Sharp money has already shifted this opening NBA 213.5 over / under line down to a 210.5 setting us up with a nice UNDER edge that has all the makings of a win. Breaking down the key facts and stats even more we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento's last 15 games on the road so until proven otherwise we know the Kings don't travel well when it comes to offensive output. Continuing the good news we note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against Sacramento so history is speaking to us as well in this spot. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics of both these teams combined give us averages of 205.73 and 215.54 respectively so if each team gives the exact expected effort we hit this UNDER total no problem. The total OVER/UNDER record for the year for the Kings on the road is 4-4 and they are quickly becoming an over judged pace team by the odds makers. When it comes to pace of play Sacramento is 23 overall and Washington is 18 giving us two of the slowest teams in the NBA trying to hit a total that is way over inflated. Just as promising we note that the Kings are 22 in possessions per game while the Wizards come in at 18 (and dropping fast) so the points and shot opportunities are just not going to be at the bulk rate the total is demanding. The public consensus for this game is 61% in favor of the over play so while against us the reads are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 215 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should see us easily sneak into this 210.5 UNDER winner lean. Game Time: Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards - Monday, November 28, 2016 7:05 PM Spread: 501 Sacramento Kings +4½ -110 +170 502 Washington Wizards -4½ -110 -200 Total: 501 Sacramento Kings Over 210½ -110 502 Washington Wizards Under 210½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 210.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons
Picking up right where we left before the holiday we get an amazing 14 game slate tonight in the NBA and we set our eyes on the Los Angeles Clippers (14-2) versus the Detroit Pistons (7-9) which is game that will be showcasing one of the best teams in the league. Speaking of the best the smart bettors have already taken this opening NBA 198.5 over / under line up to a 200 point total giving us our first inclination that this bet is indeed head to an OVER outcome. Further investigating the key facts and stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 8 games and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games on the road so we are really relying on LA to push the pace here and force the Pistons to an uptempo game which they have been all year at will. Also of historical note is the fact that the total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against the LA Clippers so something about when these teams meet that set the sparks off. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics o both these teams combined give us averages of 208.32 and 193.62 respectively so the offense is set to get us to our mark. The total OVER/UNDER record for the year for the Clippers on the road this year is 6-1 so pretty much the odds makers have been underestimating this spot all year and this should be no different. When it comes to pace of play and possessions per game both teams are low in the ranks but the Clippers have just been making teams play at another level lately while scoring in bunches so it should no problem hitting our OVER here. The public consensus for this game is 76% in favor of the OVER so like us a lot of people are seeing the same opening and value we are. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 206 so we have almost everything going in are favor as we pick up this 200 OVER play. Game Time: Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons - Friday, November 25, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 709 Los Angeles Clippers -7 -110 710 Detroit Pistons +7 -110 Total: 715 Los Angeles Clippers Over 200-110 716 Detroit Pistons Under 200 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 200 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Its the day before Thanksgiving and we get and we get a fun filled night of basketball as we hone in on the Toronto Raptors (8-6) against the Houston Rockets (9-5) game where we should see a close and slow game draw out. Expert bettors have already shot this opening NBA 219.5 over / under line down to a 216.5 pointing us in the right direction to some nice value to grab on the UNDER here. Really digging through the key facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games really highlighting that the Rockets are simply not playing at the rate odds makers are expecting and this certainly looks like we have a case of it again now. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics o both these teams combined give us averages of 216.43 and 209.79 respectively so this is one of those very rare times we get so excited for where neither average eclipses the mark were trying to hit as an UNDER play. The total OVER/UNDER record for the year for the Rockets at home is 2-3 and once again we are seeing a much slower Rockets team then expected and the lines are not adjusting correctly. When it comes to pace of play Toronto is 20 overall and Houston is 14 so these are two teams on the bottom half of the charts that should lead for a huge grind it out game especially being so close in the spread. Just as stellar of leans we note that the Raptors are 18 in possessions per game while the Rockets come in at 16 (dropping) so the points and shot opportunities are going to be few and far between in this face off. The public consensus for this game is 81% in favor of the over play so while against us the reads are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 218 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should easily sneak us into this 216.5 UNDER winner lean. Game Time: Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets - Wednesday, November 23, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 715 Toronto Raptors +3½ -110 +145 716 Houston Rockets -3½ -110 -165 Total: 715 Toronto Raptors Over 216½ -110 716 Houston Rockets Under 216½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 216.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
Its another great Monday and we pick up a nice situational play as the Golden State Warriors (11-2) go up against the Indiana Pacers (7-7) giving us one good rested team against an average squad plagued by injury and coming upon a back to back. Wise money has shifted this opening NBA 222.5 over / under line all the way down to 118 mostly correcting for a missing Paul George and CJ Miles but there is still plenty of value to pick up here still. Looking deeper inside the number and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games at home so its clear the odds makers are not adjusting correctly to the Pacers swing in pace of play at home. We also notice that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State and couple all this with no Paul George its a blow out with the Pacers not keeping up with the needed scoring or energy. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 222.99 and 216.31 respectively so if we hit the defensive side we get there which should be no problem as Indiana will be forced to slow the game down drastically to have any chance. The Pacers OVER/UNDER record for the year is 3-5 at home so were really banking on a lot of very condition specific scenarios to pull us through in this one. When it comes to pace of play and possessions per game both the Warriors and the Pacers have been dipping as of late with Indiana now even falling out of the top 10 giving us an ideal time capitalize on yet unadjusted lines. The public consensus for this game is 77% in favor of the over play so while against us were going to take a different route given some key reads. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 215 so even the raw AI breakout numbers see what we see and we have to feel good about coming up with victory on this 218 UNDER play. Game Time: Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers - Monday, November 21, 2016 7:05 PM Spread: 703 Golden State Warriors -13½ -110 -1500 704 Indiana Pacers +13½ -110 +1000 Total: 703 Golden State Warriors Over 218 -110 704 Indiana Pacers Under 218 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 218 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
We find ourselves in a battle of two Eastern heavyweights tonight as the Detroit Pistons (6-6) go up against the Cleveland Cavaliers (9-2) and what should be a defensive display by both teams to establish there dominance. Sharp bettors have already moved this opening NBA 206.5 over / under line down to 203.5 really highlighting what the numbers are telling us and that is a slow paced low scoring game. Sifting through more vital facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games showcasing just how off the odds makers have been lately in understanding this year Pistons team dynamic. We also notice that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games which means we get two teams facing off tonight that are playing much slower basketball then what is being currently predicted. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 207.58 and 201.37 respectively so were going to be relying on each teams defense to really bring this one home which based off averages we get there. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams gives us a record 8-14-1 so lots of value when taking the UNDER in this spot given the conditions. When it comes to pace of play Cleveland is 11 overall and Detroit is 23 and anytime we get two teams out of the top 10 it should make for a slow offensive night. Just as promising the Cavs are 12 in possessions per game (dropping) while the Pistons come in at 26 (dropping also) so its going to be a real uphill battle for buckets tonight on either side. The public consensus for this game is 68% in favor of the over play so while against us were going to take a different route given all of the above. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 206 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should easily sneak us into this 203.5 UNDER play. Game Time: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday, November 18, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 505 Detroit Pistons +8.5 -110 506 Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 -110 Total: 505 Detroit Pistons Over 203.5 -110 506 Cleveland Cavaliers Under 203.5 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 203.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings
Its hump day which always sets us up for a monstrous NBA schedule to pour over and jumping out at us is the San Antonio Spurs (8-3) versus the Sacramento Kings (4-6) and its a battle of slow and good against slow and bad which should lead to whole a lot of UNDER just like this near identical game did three weeks ago. The savvy money is already picked up on what we see as this opening NBA 198.5 over / under line has dropped to 197 indicating some nice value to pick up on the UNDER here. Diving into more facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Sacramento's last 13 games really uncovering the fact that the odds makers have not adjusted from last years run and gun Kings style. Also the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing San Antonio and the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Sacramento's last 8 games when playing at home against San Antonio and its these type of situational specific trends you simply can not ignore. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 200 and 199.4 respectively so this is a very team and court dependent play were relying on here to make up those couple extra points we need to hit. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a mark of 9-13 so were getting a scenario that is too hard to pass up here. When it comes to pace of play San Antonio is 27 overall and Sacramento is 28 so its basically the two slowest teams in the league going at it tonight which should be yet another grind out every possession game again like we watched just three weeks ago against these two. Just as stellar of leans we note that the Spurs are 29 in possessions per game and dropping steadily while the Kings come in at 25 so the points are opportunities are going to be few and far between in this contest. The public consensus for this game is 67% in favor of the over play so while against us the numbers are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 199 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should easily sneak us into this 197 UNDER winner play. Game Time: San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings - Wednesday, November 16, 2016 10:35 PM Spread: 519 San Antonio Spurs -6 -110 -240 520 Sacramento Kings +6 -110 +200 Total: 519 San Antonio Spurs Over 197 -110 520 Sacramento Kings Under 197 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 197 (2 Units Pick #1 – Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets
Here we are starting off the week with a Monday plate of great games and for this NBA slate we set our sights on the Philadelphia 76ers (1-8) versus the Houston Rockets (5-4) which pits terrible against mediocre. The sharp money has made its statement on this opening NBA 216.5 over / under line knocking it down two points to a 213.5 setting us up for some nice value on the UNDER. Picking apart more facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home really highlighting the fact that the odds makers are simply not getting the Rockets game flow at home yet. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 203.44 and 214.89 respectively so we get a nice set up spread here that highly favors our UNDER side. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a mark of 9-9 (Rockets are 0-2 in favor of the UNDER at home) so were once again seeing the leans our way even if ever so slightly as is in this case. When it comes to pace of play Houston is 17 overall and Philadelphia is 14 so two slower paced teams that certainly can not justify the line here. Even more promising is that Houston is 20 in possessions per game and dropping so they are really taking there time this up and down the floor as compared to last year which is clearly giving the odds makers fits. The public consensus for this game is 64% in favor of the over play so while against us the numbers are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 214 so all we need is for that to hold but most likely we take this one hoe much easier as the offenses should be locked up and slowed down for this one make the UNDER 213.5 a perfect play out of tonight's lot. Game Time: Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets - Monday, November 14, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 509 Philadelphia 76ers +11½ -110 +600 510 Houston Rockets -11½ -110 -900 Total: 509 Philadelphia 76ers Over 213½ -110 510 Houston Rockets Under 213½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 213.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Picking it back up there are a ton of great games this Friday and we set our sights on the New York Knicks (3-4) at Boston Celtics (3-4) which features a tale of two teams trying to reach .500. The smart money has shown itself in a major here bringing this opening NBA 216.5 over / under line down to a 213.5 giving us every reason to believe the value is on the UNDER. Dissecting more facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 14 games so the odds makers are clearly off when assessing the Celtics lately. On top of this the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing New York and the total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 15 games when playing at home against New York so we also get a clear situational value play on the under here as well. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 211 and 220.57 respectively so were counting on the slower offenses to bring this one home for us. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a mark 6-8 (Celtics are 1-3 in favor of the UNDER at home) so the odds once again all on our side. When it comes to pace of play Boston is 14 overall and New York is 16 so these are two teams that are now playing on the slower side. Even more promising is that Boston is 16 in possessions per game and the Knicks rank 30 (dropping quickly) so this game should be to slow to justify this total. The public consensus for this game is 79% in favor of the UNDER so just one more reason to love the pick. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 217 so its the other details were turning to get us to this UNDER 213.5. Game Time: New York Knicks at Boston Celtics - Friday, November 11, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 709 New York Knicks +5½ -110 +185 710 Boston Celtics -5½ -110 -225 Total: 709 New York Knicks Over 213½ -110 710 Boston Celtics Under 213½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 213.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets
Amazing slate of games tonight and we hope to be picking up some value tonight as the Utah Jazz (5-3) at Charlotte Hornets (5-1) which is a showcase of two teams playing exceptional basketball. While this NBA total line is barely moving only showing a .5 difference from opening its headed in the right direction and think it might get stretched even more against are OVER pick so grab as early as possible. It looks like George Hill is injured or out and Favors is back in full force and both these facts really point in our favor to a higher scoring game for many reasons such as removal of the Hill defense and pace of play at the point and a stronger inside game against a softer Hornets interior. Diving into more facts and stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games on the road and this really is a perfect situational play that feels like the odds makers are just missing as Utah will most assuredly be pushed into a Hornets style game as is there tendency on the road this year specifically. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 203.71 and 199.8 giving a rare gap that favors so much more of the offenses side which easily shoots us way OVER the current total. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a 8-6 so once again were getting trends going highly in our favor. When it comes to pace of play and possessions per game Charlotte shows up as 11th in league and Utah is going to have to play up and down and should have no problem doing so behind their backup point guards and newly minted front court. The public consensus for this game is 85% in favor of the OVER so plenty of others seeing the same thing we are here. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 198 so this OVER 192.5 pick is simply looking to good to pass up. Game Time: Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets - Wednesday, November 09, 2016 7:05 PM Spread: 707 Utah Jazz +2½ -110 +120 708 Charlotte Hornets -2½ -110 -140 Total: 707 Utah Jazz Over 192½ -110 708 Charlotte Hornets Under 192½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 192.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt |
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