Impact of Turnovers on Winning and Losing in the NFL
There are two things that football coaches at all levels can’t stand; penalties and turnovers. From Pee Wee football to the NFL, those are two things that will cause coaches to pull their hair out. NFL bettors share those beliefs, at least when they team they have wagered on commits a penalty or fumbles away the ball, as very little can impact the final score as much as a turnover.
Historical Impact of Turnovers on Winning and Losing in the NFL
Between 2010 and 2013, NFL teams that committed at least three turnovers in a game were just 94-358-10 against the point spread. Teams that made at least four turnovers were even worse, going 33-165-2 (16.7%) against the number and teams that made five or more turnovers were a dismal 6-62 (8.8%) against the spread.
On the other side of the equation, teams that committed no turnovers in a game happened to cover the point spread an amazing percentage of the time. Favorites who committed no turnovers were 198-83-6 (70.4%) against the number, while underdogs were even more impressive, posting a 143-44-4 (76.5%) mark.
On the other side of the equation, teams that committed no turnovers in a game happened to cover the point spread an amazing percentage of the time. Favorites who committed no turnovers were 198-83-6 (70.4%) against the number, while underdogs were even more impressive, posting a 143-44-4 (76.5%) mark.
Impact of Turnovers on Points scored in the NFL
The traditional belief is that the impact of a turnover costs a team four points in the NFL, so a team with three turnovers essentially gave away 12 points.
It doesn’t always mean that the team making the turnovers scored 12 fewer points than they should have, it can also be reflected in the opposition scoring 12 more points than they should have, or more likely, a combination of the two.
When you consider that on average a turnover is worth more to the final score than a field goal, its no surprise that the Impact of Turnovers on winning and losing in the NFL is significant.
It doesn’t always mean that the team making the turnovers scored 12 fewer points than they should have, it can also be reflected in the opposition scoring 12 more points than they should have, or more likely, a combination of the two.
When you consider that on average a turnover is worth more to the final score than a field goal, its no surprise that the Impact of Turnovers on winning and losing in the NFL is significant.
Using the Impact of Turnovers to create a betting strategy
Obviously, not all turnovers are equal. A Hail Mary that is intercepted just before halftime isn’t as significant as a fumble that occurs on the 20-yard line midway through the third quarter, so bettors do need to take a bit of time and look and see when, and where, turnovers were committed, as a fumble at midfield is less critical than a fumble deep inside the 10-yard line.
Interceptions are usually the less significant of the two because of the yardage difference. Fumbles most often occur right around the line of scrimmage, while interceptions typically take place down-field a bit.
A team that throws an interception will usually pick up a little bit of yardage, although not enough to make up for losing possession of the ball.
Interceptions are usually the less significant of the two because of the yardage difference. Fumbles most often occur right around the line of scrimmage, while interceptions typically take place down-field a bit.
A team that throws an interception will usually pick up a little bit of yardage, although not enough to make up for losing possession of the ball.
NFL Turnover Betting Strategy Chase System
Obviously it would be nice to know ahead of time which team is going to make the most turnovers, but it’s not quite as easy as that. Still, there are a few signs that a team might be ready for a good effort or due for a bad one that can be determined by looking at turnovers from the previous week. The logical assumption is a team that commits a number of turnovers one week is more likely to play better the following week, but that hasn’t been the case, as it appears good and bad habits carry often over to the next game.
Teams that committed no turnovers the previous week have been excellent bets when they are playing a team that committed three or more turnovers the week before. Since 2010, these teams are 63-32-1 against the spread. When the team that committed no turnovers the previous week is made the favorite, they have posted a solid 42-15 (73.7%) record and there was little difference where the game was played, as home teams were 32-16-1 against the spread and road teams were 31-16.
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Teams that committed no turnovers the previous week have been excellent bets when they are playing a team that committed three or more turnovers the week before. Since 2010, these teams are 63-32-1 against the spread. When the team that committed no turnovers the previous week is made the favorite, they have posted a solid 42-15 (73.7%) record and there was little difference where the game was played, as home teams were 32-16-1 against the spread and road teams were 31-16.
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