NFL Betting Strategy
How to Develop an NFL Betting Strategy
Once you have a grasp of the basics of spread, money line and over/under NFL betting, you may want to explore a more advanced NFL Betting Strategy.
For example, many handicappers looking to bet on the NFL will want to take into consideration a number of other important factors than just the chances of team A beating team B, but by how many points A is better than B? and how do you predict this in your NFL Betting Strategy.
Many Professional NFL handicappers spend time building what are called “power ranking systems” or "team ranking systems" to evaluate a team compared to another team, taking into account their relative strengths. These ranking systems should predict who will win on any given Sunday. This is then measured against the odds offered by bookmakers – looking for discrepancies that represent valuable betting opportunities.
However, for those who are looking to develop a new NFL betting strategy, there are some accessible handicapping systems that can produce accurate results in the short term.
For example, many handicappers looking to bet on the NFL will want to take into consideration a number of other important factors than just the chances of team A beating team B, but by how many points A is better than B? and how do you predict this in your NFL Betting Strategy.
Many Professional NFL handicappers spend time building what are called “power ranking systems” or "team ranking systems" to evaluate a team compared to another team, taking into account their relative strengths. These ranking systems should predict who will win on any given Sunday. This is then measured against the odds offered by bookmakers – looking for discrepancies that represent valuable betting opportunities.
However, for those who are looking to develop a new NFL betting strategy, there are some accessible handicapping systems that can produce accurate results in the short term.
3 Step NFL Betting Strategy
Century Link Field, Seattle
Yardage Differential
At the most basic level the NFL is about the battle between offensive and defensive units.
Thus, a simple way to evaluate the strength of a given NFL team is to look at the average of the offensive yards gained per play and the average defensive yards allowed per play.
As you would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow, tend to win.
While this is just one of many factors, this measure is at least one of the primary predictors of future performance.
Home Field Advantage NFL Betting Strategy
As the NFL operates in a ‘closed’ league system, we know that the teams will be the same from year to year. We can also use the historical data to determine the effect of a ‘home field advantage’ HFA on the overall score.
To determine the HFA for each team competing in the NFL you can simply take the total points scored by visiting teams and subtract it from the total points scored by the home team, then divide by the total number of games played to figure out the home field advantage. You will need to do this for each team in the league to get an average.
Historically some teams have a much stronger home field advantage due to factors like Weather, Noise, altitude and location.
One such example is Century Link Field, home of the Seattle Seahawk's and the 12th Man.
Another would be Arrowhead stadium where the world record for was set for loudest stadium. At 142.9 Dba on Sept 29th 2014.
A third example would be Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the home field of the Green Bay Packers, where the temperature often drops well below -20 Degrees centigrade.
You will find that after working out the average Home Field Advantage in the NFL for around 20 years that the number works out to about a 3 point advantage for the home team.
At the most basic level the NFL is about the battle between offensive and defensive units.
Thus, a simple way to evaluate the strength of a given NFL team is to look at the average of the offensive yards gained per play and the average defensive yards allowed per play.
As you would expect, teams that gain more yards than they allow, tend to win.
While this is just one of many factors, this measure is at least one of the primary predictors of future performance.
Home Field Advantage NFL Betting Strategy
As the NFL operates in a ‘closed’ league system, we know that the teams will be the same from year to year. We can also use the historical data to determine the effect of a ‘home field advantage’ HFA on the overall score.
To determine the HFA for each team competing in the NFL you can simply take the total points scored by visiting teams and subtract it from the total points scored by the home team, then divide by the total number of games played to figure out the home field advantage. You will need to do this for each team in the league to get an average.
Historically some teams have a much stronger home field advantage due to factors like Weather, Noise, altitude and location.
One such example is Century Link Field, home of the Seattle Seahawk's and the 12th Man.
Another would be Arrowhead stadium where the world record for was set for loudest stadium. At 142.9 Dba on Sept 29th 2014.
A third example would be Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the home field of the Green Bay Packers, where the temperature often drops well below -20 Degrees centigrade.
You will find that after working out the average Home Field Advantage in the NFL for around 20 years that the number works out to about a 3 point advantage for the home team.
Key Numbers NFL Betting Strategy
When betting on the NFL handicap there are a few key numbers to be aware of. These numbers are the margins most landed on relative to the NFL final score.
Anyone who has watched the NFL for a while will notice that there are a few key numbers to be aware of, mainly 3,4 and 7. These are the most common numbers that a team will win or lose by.
By paying close attention to the key numbers you can work out which team the sports book or bookmaker wants you to bet on. You can also be careful to avoid bad bets.
These three factors are some of the most important things to consider when betting football. A close forth is the turnover margin of a team. For more information on the effect of turnovers check out my article.
Don’t forget that if you are planning on putting your NFL Betting Strategy into action on any type of professional football, Sports Picker has a full review of the best places to make a bet.
Anyone who has watched the NFL for a while will notice that there are a few key numbers to be aware of, mainly 3,4 and 7. These are the most common numbers that a team will win or lose by.
By paying close attention to the key numbers you can work out which team the sports book or bookmaker wants you to bet on. You can also be careful to avoid bad bets.
These three factors are some of the most important things to consider when betting football. A close forth is the turnover margin of a team. For more information on the effect of turnovers check out my article.
Don’t forget that if you are planning on putting your NFL Betting Strategy into action on any type of professional football, Sports Picker has a full review of the best places to make a bet.
