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NFL Betting | Prop Betting Strategy

NFL Prop Betting
While the most common betting on NFL Football typically involves game point spreads and point totals there is also at times a variety of alternative bets available, these are known as Prop bets. The additional action offered by the casinos and sportsbooks on outcomes unrelated to standard spreads and totals is often called a proposition bet.

A proposition bet or “prop bet” traditionally focuses on betting on an event that is unique in nature or one that does not fall into the realm of what most consider “regular betting”. For the savvy bettor these side bets are another opportunity to find and extract value from the betting board. Lets review some of the prop bet types we should be on the lookout for during the NFL betting season.

Player Prop Betting

An NFL player proposition bet involves wagering on the outcome of an event that involves a particular players performance.

Examples for NFL Player props include:


  •     - prop betting on if a certain running back will reach a set number carries or yards        
  •     - prop betting on a specific quarterbacks pass completion rate or total passing yards
  •     - prop betting on a receiver to receive over a set number passes or total receiving yards
        - prop betting on a player to score under or over a set number of touchdowns
        - prop betting on a kicker to score a total number of points
        - prop betting on a defensive players sack total or tackle totals

Player Prop Betting Strategy

Receiver Player Prop Betting Strategy - For this type of prop bet the sports handicappers should look at the match ups. If a team with a big time receiver like Calvin Johnson, is up against a very weak secondary, chances are he will have a big game and cover the prop betting total for catches or total yards.

Kicker Prop Betting Strategy

NFL player prop bets also includes lines such as a kickers field goal total and a defensive players sack total. Total field goals can be an easy one to pick when you know two teams that have very good defenses are facing off, chances are they will end up kicking more field goals.

Season Long Prop Betting Strategy

Year long player prop bets may involve betting on who will win the NFL MVP or NFL Rookie of The Year and other such accolade and accomplishment type wagers. For these year long prop bets, sports handicappers should look at the players with a good chance of covering long shot odds, an example would be a rookie running back or wide receiver who has a great shot of having a big year, but comes in with little expectations.

Team Prop Betting Strategy

Much like player props NFL team proposition bets are in-game bets that revolve around an entire teams performance. Bets such as which team will score first or how many points a particular defense will allow all fall into the category of NFL team prop bets. Other NFL team props to be on the watch for are some of the more eclectic offerings in NFL betting such as will a teams offense give up a safety or if a teams defense will allow a punt or kick return for a touchdown. Any bet that involves a single teams output or performance can safely be labeled a NFL team prop bet.

Future Prop Betting

Mostly released before the NFL season starts future proposition bets deal with potential outcomes often centered around league standings and results. Regular Season Win Totals, Division Winners and Super Bowl participants are some of the most common NFL futures props. These kind of prop bets are for those that want to wager on how many games a specific NFL team will win during the regular season or which team will place first in there division or win the super bowl.

Future Prop Betting Strategy

The best strategy for these long term bets is to focus on underdog or long shot plays that have a good chance of coming through. An example would be the under/over win total after a team has faced several of the hardest teams on its schedule. The chances are they will perform much better down the stretch, but the public perception is negatively impacted by the slow start. Be careful with long term future prop bets as the odds offered are generally not very favorable to the sports bettor, so you need to have a clear edge to make the bet profitable.

Superbowl Prop Betting

Due to the magnitude and popularity of the Super Bowl it is common to see a more exotic set of NFL proposition bets during this final championship games. Wagers on events like the opening coin flip and length of the National Anthem are now NFL prop betting traditions. If you do think you will find NFL prop betting enjoyable the Super Bowl is one of the best times to enjoy all that NFL prop betting has to offer. There is no specific strategy for these bets, and any serious sports bettor should avoid them.

While football prop bets are not always offered for every NFL game or season circumstance, do look for them to show up during the bigger games (i.e. NFL Monday Night Football) and at the larger sports books before and throughout the entire season.

As you become a more seasoned NFL handicapper it will be imperative to carefully consider all bets that may be available to you in the market. I recommend that any beginning sports bettor study some of the professional prop betting picks to start getting a feel for what it takes to find an edge in the many different NFL prop betting scenarios offered by the sports books and casinos.

Hopefully this article was helpful for anyone new to betting NFL or College Football.

If you are interested in learning about Prop bets and want a reputable sports book that has the most options I suggest checking out 5Dimes. 

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Additional Strategy Articles
How to Bet on NFL: Spread Betting Explained
How to Bet on NFL: Prop Betting Explained
How to Handicap NFL Effect of Turnovers
How to Handicap NFL: Developing a Betting Strategy
NFL Preseason Betting Strategy
College Football Betting Strategy: NCAA Early Season
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  • Welcome
  • FREE PICKS
  • Strategy
    • NFL Betting >
      • Spread Betting Explained
      • Prop Betting Strategy
      • Impact of Turnovers on Winning and Losing in the NFL
      • NFL Betting Strategy
      • Basic Strategy Teasers
      • NFL Preseason Betting Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: More Teaser Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: Covered Spread Betting with Push Charts
    • College Football Strategy: NCAA Early Season
    • How To Rate A Sports Handicapper
  • Sports Book Reviews
  • About Rob
  • 5Dimes