Pick #1 – Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards
Starting off the week we get a nice night NBA games as we set our sights on the Sacramento Kings (7-10) versus the Washington Wizards (5-10) in a contest of two average teams just trying to improve. Sharp money has already shifted this opening NBA 213.5 over / under line down to a 210.5 setting us up with a nice UNDER edge that has all the makings of a win. Breaking down the key facts and stats even more we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento's last 15 games on the road so until proven otherwise we know the Kings don't travel well when it comes to offensive output. Continuing the good news we note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing at home against Sacramento so history is speaking to us as well in this spot. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics of both these teams combined give us averages of 205.73 and 215.54 respectively so if each team gives the exact expected effort we hit this UNDER total no problem. The total OVER/UNDER record for the year for the Kings on the road is 4-4 and they are quickly becoming an over judged pace team by the odds makers. When it comes to pace of play Sacramento is 23 overall and Washington is 18 giving us two of the slowest teams in the NBA trying to hit a total that is way over inflated. Just as promising we note that the Kings are 22 in possessions per game while the Wizards come in at 18 (and dropping fast) so the points and shot opportunities are just not going to be at the bulk rate the total is demanding. The public consensus for this game is 61% in favor of the over play so while against us the reads are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 215 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should see us easily sneak into this 210.5 UNDER winner lean.
Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards - Monday, November 28, 2016 7:05 PM
501 Sacramento Kings +4½ -110 +170
502 Washington Wizards -4½ -110 -200
501 Sacramento Kings Over 210½ -110
502 Washington Wizards Under 210½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 210.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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