Pick #1 – Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers
Crazy to start to the NBA year so far and we pick things back up tonight as we get the Phoenix Suns (0-3) at the Los Angeles Clippers (2-0) in a game that puts the undefeated against the winless. Both teams report zero injury concerns with the Clippers Paul Pierce being the only person of note to have any chance of missing the game. Right out the gate we see that the sharp money is pounding this NBA total down as a 210.5 opening line has now dropped to a 207 giving our first clue as to where this UNDER bet is headed. Digging deeper we see that the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Phoenix's last 19 games and the total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Clippers's last 21 games so its a perfect case of two teams coming together that simply slow the pace down when they meet. We also note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing at home against Phoenix and Clippers really do lock it down and tonight should be no different forcing yet another under. The recent offensive and defensive form statistics give us averages of 202.33 and 201.17 respectively which makes the UNDER super appealing in this one. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year here is 2-3 so were getting a ton of value in our favor here. The public consensus for this game is 67% against us but were trust our read here with this one. The computer predicted outcome of this opener is 206 so its looking like its all signs go here on the UNDER 207 pick and we have to feel confident picking this one up. Game Time: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers - Monday, October 31, 2016 10:35 PM Spread: 507 Phoenix Suns +10½ -110 +500 508 Los Angeles Clippers -10½ -110 -700 Total: 507 Phoenix Suns Over 207 -110 508 Los Angeles Clippers Under 207 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 207 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Suffice it to say its nice to have the NBA back and we get another great look as we see the Cleveland Cavaliers (1-0) versus the Toronto Raptors (1-0) in a square that sees two teams that came flying out of the gate. Each squad has no major concerns injury wise with the Raptors Jared Sullinger being top of list but these two are clicking with all starters playing above average. The smart money is leading the way here as this opening 202.5 NBA has now rocketed to a 206 OVER as we get two teams ready for a barn burner on a Friday night in Canada where fans and players alike are going to be pumped. The total has not only gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games at home but also the total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto so we know the Cavs do not might the quick flight to Canada for a throw down. The offensive head to head averaged numbers over the last 10 for these two teams when they meet are 107.3 for the Cavaliers and 95.60 for the Raptors so were right where we need to be as the Raptors dropped 109 last game so its clear they are on an upswing this year in points scored per game average at home. The over/under for this NBA spread total started off at 202.5 and is now on a 3.5 move uptick so the money is letting us know once again that the OVER is looking like it has a ton of value here with Lebron, Love, Irving, Lowry and DeRozen looking at the peaks of their game. The public consensus for this game is at a very strong 74% towards the OVER so there are a lot of people seeing the same thing we are here. The computer predicted outcome of this opener is 204 but the way these two teams came out to start the season we have to think the 206 should easily get there for the OVER. Game Time: Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors - Friday, October 28, 2016 7:05 PM Spread: 701 Cleveland Cavaliers -3 -110 -150 702 Toronto Raptors +3 -110 +130 Total: 701 Cleveland Cavaliers Over 206 -110 702 Toronto Raptors Under 206 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 206 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
Well the NBA is finally back and its time to add some butter to the bread as we get on with the start of the season and see the Detroit Pistons take on the Toronto Raptors for there opening nights. The Detroit Pistons (0-0) and the Toronto Raptors (0-0) are both primed to come into this season gunning. Each franchise heads into tonight's matchup with some minor setbacks to the roster with Reggie Jackson being out probably being the biggest loss but most of the big stars are suiting up so the sparks should be flying as we get under way and both teams looked solid as far as preseason goes. The sharp money is showing us the path to success off the top as we have watched this opening 195 NBA total get blasted up to a 197 OVER and honestly with this one looks could go higher. The total total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit so we are going to ride a bit of history here and grab some trending value. The offensive head to head averaged numbers over the last 10 for these two teams when they meet are 102.7 for the Pistons and 108.3 so there is a ton of historical scoring upside to these two squads battling. The over/under for this NBA spread total started off at 195 and has shot up to 197 so the money is letting us know once again that the OVER is looking like a very sharp play here. The public consensus for this game is at a very strong 74% towards the OVER so the notion of strength in numbers is with us on this one as well. The computer predicted outcome of this opener is 201 so we have to feel great about grabbing the OVER 197 here as both teams should be looking to explode tonight with points provided on both sides.. Game Time: Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors - Wednesday, October 26, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 705 Detroit Pistons +7 -110 +250 706 Toronto Raptors -7 -110 -300 Total: 705 Detroit Pistons Over 197 -110 706 Toronto Raptors Under 197 -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 197 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens
Were getting back at it again as we breakdown the Philadelphia Flyers (2-2-1) versus the Montreal Canadiens (4-0-1) in a game that will be featuring one of the best teams in the NHL right now. While there was no sharp money movement in this game we still get a great set up game and price for this matchup as its a low total with one of the hottest scoring teams in the league. We get favorable numbers and trends right off the bat as we see that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games at home which means were getting one best teams in hockey in a home ice trend that just screams points. Also we note that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia so not only do we get to lean on trends but situational specifics as well. It appears most believe the scoring and domination will continue for Montreal as well as 76% are rolling with the OVER. The Philadelphia Flyers produce 3.80 goals this year and the Montreal Canadiens output an even 4.00 goals so we get two teams that are absolutely smashing the puck into the net lately. Another really favorable part of this OVER bet is that we get Carey Price in the net for Montreal tonight who is making his third straight start so he should be wearing a bit as has shown in his last two games where he gave up two goals in each. In other good news Steve Mason as goalie on the other side of the ice who allowed three goals on 30 shots in the Flyers’ win over the Hurricanes on Saturday so even if these two give up their base averages we will be good to go. In other fantastic news the computer predicted score for this matchup is 5.6 so the OVER 5 play really hits all the marks we look for in a strong play. We have to pay a bit of a price here at -125 but there should really be no issues in taking this OVER down as we get two of the best scoring teams in game right barreling down at tired and suspect goal tending. Game Time: Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens - Monday, October 24, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 1 Philadelphia Flyers +1½ -215 +145 2 Montreal Canadiens -1½ +178 -165 Total: 1 Philadelphia Flyers Over 5 -125 2 Montreal Canadiens Under 5 +105 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings
As playoff baseball winds down were so excited to have hockey back and were going to get into our first play of the season tonight as we watch the Nashville Predators (1-2) faceoff against the Detroit Red Wings (2-2) in a battle of two teams off to mediocre starts. Were pumped about this play from the get go as many books have seen this total go from a 5.5 to a 5 so were really seeing the sharp money doing its work early here. In addition to this key line move we also note that the total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing at home against Nashville so were getting trend in our favor here that looks to continue nicely. Both teams are looking to break out of their slumps but the public consensus as with us seems to think the sticks will be cold again tonight as were showing 57% are siding with us on the UNDER. The Nashville Predators produce 2.33 goals this year and the Detroit Red Wings output an even 3 goals so far on the year so these two teams will need to show up with a lot more then just average to kill us on this UNDER which is always a nice set up for us for a win. Another really favorable part of this UNDER bet is that we get Petr Mrazek in the net for Detroit tonight who stopped 31 of 32 shots in the Red Wings’ win over the Senators last Monday and one who has looked very strong so far and should be well rested coming off a 3 day break. In other good news Pekka Rinne allowed two goals on 37 shots in the Predators’ loss to the Stars on Tuesday so if we get this same production from both these well rested net minders we should be good to go here. In other fantastic news the computer predicted score for this matchup is 5.3 so the UNDER 5.5 play is showing all the signs of a great value play here. We have to pay a bit of a price here at -150 but there should really be no issues in locking up this UNDER win as we get two great goalies against two offenses that are struggling to score in a rink not know for goals when these two teams meet up. Game Time: Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings - Friday, October 21, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 55 Nashville Predators -1½ +245 -125 56 Detroit Red Wings +1½ -290 +105 Total: 55 Nashville Predators Over 5½ +130 56 Detroit Red Wings Under 5½ -150 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 5.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Playoff baseball has been amazing so far this year and tonight we get the Chicago Cubs (107-61) against the Los Angeles Dodgers (96-74) in a duel that might be seeing the dreams of many in Chi town slip away. This pick starts off with all the makings of a solid play as the opening number on the total of 7.5 has now dropped to 7 thanks to an early sharp money push which we will gladly trail. Were getting all the right signals for this one and that is reinforced by stats such as the total has gone UNDER in 14 of LA Dodgers's last 17 games when playing Chi Cubs. On top of this the total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs so we get an absolute gem of a situation to ride these staggering trends to another win. Both teams take a must win attitude into tonight and the public consensus seems to think this will mean lock down pitching again as 59% are siding with us on the UNDER. The Chicago Cubs produce 4.93 runs this year (a ridiculously low 3.6 runs in the postseason) and the Los Angeles Dodgers output 4.44 runs on the year so its with scoring trends shaping up the way they are this one has UNDER written all over it. The park factor for this game is a very nice -97 so we get Mother Nature on our side for this one as well. The weather at Dodger Stadium is looking like 64°F, Sunny, Humidity is 76% and the Wind is blowing Northeast 4 mph so the pitchers are really getting some ideal conditions to take the mound tonight. Another really favorable part of this UNDER bet is the fact that both the Cubs and Dodgers have elite closing staffs making late inning runs almost obsolete in this series. One of the best parts of this pick is that we get a John Lackey (R) pitching who has a 1.80 ERA over this last week so its clear he is in true playoff form. We also get starting pitcher Julio Urias (L) who has a September ERA of 1.93 so we get two pitchers coming in on the top of their game. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 6.8 so the UNDER 7 play gets all the right leans and at a +105 we should be super happy to grab a bunch value in this spot for all of the reasons above. Game Time: Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers - Wednesday, October 19, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 901 Chicago Cubs -1½ +155 -107 902 Los Angeles Dodgers +1½ -175 -103 Total: 901 Chicago Cubs Over 7 -125 902 Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 +105 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 7 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays
Were starting to get our form back and tonight we have another great setup game to get back on track as we see the Cleveland Indians (99-67) once again take on the Toronto Blue Jays (93-75) in a series that is starting to look all but over. Once again we see a nice line movement for this one with an opening of 9 and a sharp money pressure push on the Total betting it down to 8.5 and we have to believe like last time there is something to be said about the value on taking the UNDER here. For starters the trends are almost impossible to ignore such as the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 22 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home. Even more encouraging is we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto and total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Cleveland creating yet another perfect storm for a low scoring pitcher friendly ballgame. The public consensus is all over this one with us after learning their the lesson the last time and 56% think the UNDER is hitting in this one. The Toronto Blue Jays produce 4.68 runs this year (consistently dropping as of late) and the Cleveland Indians output 4.80 runs (also dropping) so with the offensive production on the decline its only right to ride the heat of the UNDER play here. The park factor for this game is a bit scary at a +112 rating but with the Toronto bats being so dead there is not much to worry about here. The weather at Rogers Center is looking like 63°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 96% and a Wind that is blowing ENE at 13 mph so another ideal baseball environment for pitching to excel. Another angle of this bet that really works in our favor is that both the Indians and Blue Jays have strong bullpens which should play a vital role in keeping this MLB over/under Total a low one. Another nice part of this pick is we get Marcus Stroman (R) who has just destroyed Indians this year posting a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings pitched. In other good news starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (R) has been running through Toronto hitters this also featuring a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 5.6 so the UNDER 8.5 really looks great on paper as well as when run through the AI machine so lets be happy with this play and keep the streak going with another win. Game Time: Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays - American League Championship Series - Game 3 - Monday, October 17, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 951 Cleveland Indians +1½ -130 +165 952 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +110 -175 Total: 951 Cleveland Indians Over 8½ -110 952 Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 8.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians
Well the MLB playoffs have not been treating us well and its nice to have the NHL and NBA which we should be getting into shortly but for tonight's pick we try get back into the groove with a nice Toronto Blue Jays (93-73) versus the Cleveland Indians (97-67) pitching duel matchup. Finally we get some juicy line movement again and see that the opening 8 MLB total is now at a 7.5 getting us back to the roots and old feelers of the hot streak so gladly take the UNDER for this one. Noting and referencing stats like the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 15 of Toronto's last 20 games we are getting that struggling mightily to put runs up while still beating opponents with great pitching. It becomes even more appealing when we see that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing Toronto so we are picking up serious trends in our favor here backed by absolute amazing pitching. The public consensus is currently at 59% against on the UNDER but this might actually be a good thing as the public is doing terrible on total picks for this years playoffs so far. The Toronto Blue Jays produce 4.73 runs this year and the Cleveland Indians output 4.83 runs but these numbers do not hold quit as much given the playoff atmosphere of MLB. The park factor for this game is a completely reasonable +100 so there should be no reason why the pitchers should have trouble putting a dominating performance. The weather at Progressive Field is looking like 52°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 66% and a of Wind is SSE 9 mph so another great day for baseball and a low scoring game potential. Another part of this bet that we have to really like is the fact that both the Indians and Blue Jays have solid closing staffs which should play a key role in keeping this one low. Another nice part of this pick is we get Marco Estrada (R) who has a stellar 1.80 ERA over the last week in a playoff atmosphere so it looks like his primed for a killer post season. In other good news starting pitcher Corey Kluber (R) has been killing it all year with a 3.14 ERA and its always encouraging when you get the teams best pitcher in a playoff atmosphere when taking the UNDER. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 6.6 so the UNDER 7.5 really looks great on paper for all the reasons mentioned. Game Time: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians - American League Championship Series - Game 1 - Friday, October 14, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 901 Toronto Blue Jays +1½ -170 +131 902 Cleveland Indians -1½ +150 -141 Total: 901 Toronto Blue Jays Over 7½ -110 902 Cleveland Indians Under 7½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 7.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants
After a hot streak we have been a bit off these playoffs an look to get back on track with the Chicago Cubs (105-58-1) against the San Francisco Giants (88-77) in what is to be a showdown between two the top pitchers in the game right now. No line movement on any of the 3 games for tonight but we are going to take a lesson from one of our recent plays and take the UNDER here in a very similar spot that hit before. Noting and referencing numbers like the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing San Francisco we have to believe were getting off to a great start for this read. It becomes even more alluring when we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Francisco's last 15 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs which highlights the point that the trends are very much in our favor here. While the smart money and book balancing did not hit the radar for this one we do get the public consensus on our side as 58% are on the UNDER which is always a good sign. The Chicago Cubs produce 4.96 runs this year and the San Francisco Giants output 4.36 runs but these numbers are becoming less and less important as the playoffs are just a completely different beast then the regular season so were going with trends and more vital stats here. The park factor for this game is an unheard of -76 so the best pitchers in the world will get all the help in the world from Mother Nature as well. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 49°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 90% and a Wind is W 6 mph which lends to chilly conditions that should also lead to some cold bats. Another part of this bet that we have to really like is the fact that the Cubs have one of the most elite closing staffs in the game right so good luck getting any runs by them in this one. Another nice part of this pick is we get Madison Bumgarner (L) pitching at a ridiculous playoff pace and also happens to have a jaw dropping 1.32 ERA over 2 Cubs wins for the year. In other good news starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (R) pitches his best baseball of the entire year against the Giants at a 2.0 ERA over two games on the season so its hard to see the bats picking up any momentum or steam in this one. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 4.5 so the UNDER 6 not only looks super appealing for all the reasons above but we also pick some nice value up here as its a dollar ten or better in our favor. Game Time: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants - National League Divisional Series - Game 3 - Monday, October 10, 2016 9:35 PM Spread: 903 Chicago Cubs -1½ +165 -106 904 San Francisco Giants +1½ -190 -104 Total: 903 Chicago Cubs Over 6 -130 904 San Francisco Giants Under 6 +110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 6 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians
The playoffs can be a bit tricky betting but lets get back to the formula basics and the hot streak for today's Boston Red Sox (93-70) versus the Cleveland Indians (95-67) opening series game for October glory. Getting back to following the sharp money after last picks disaster we see that the opening 7 over/under MLB betting line has now jumped up to a 7.5 which is always encouraging when thinking about backing some of the best bats in all of baseball. We start to see our read open up a bit more here as we note that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games so they are hitting hot right now and when it comes to scoring nobody does it better in the American league then the Red Sox so we really get a nice set up for some runs today. Not only are we getting back taking the smart sides money we also get the public consensus on a nice confidence interval here as 65% and the highest total out of the 4 games today is rolling on the OVER here as well. The Boston Red Sox put up 5.41 runs this year and the Cleveland Indians output 4.8 runs on the year and its really these two teams out of any that can put up some serious runs at any given time. The park factor for this game is an absolutely amazing +100 with a favorable hitters RED star as well as a ridiculous 18 mph wind blowing out making it the first time in awhile we get some nice whether condition in our favor which should provide a huge boost in offensive output. The weather at Progressive Field is looking like 71°F, Sunny, Humidity is 80% and a Wind that is South-southeast 11 -18 mph so just ideal conditions for the bats to get hot. Another part of this bet that helps a lot is that the Indians bullpen has been a bit suspect this year and Boston should have a chance to feast off this in the later innings. Another nice part of this pick is we get Corey Kluber (R) pitching who just does not handle the Red Sox all that well boasting a bloated 4.38 ERA over two games this year. In other good news starting pitcher David Price (R) had a pretty shakey September posting an uncharacteristic 4.35 ERA which is indication he is a bit off his game as of late giving us even more positive variables to work with. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.4 so the OVER 7.5 is a fine play given the value we are picking according to the breakdown above. Game Time: Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians - American League Divisional Series - Game 2 - Friday, October 07, 2016 4:35 PM Spread: 955 Boston Red Sox +1½ -230 -105 956 Cleveland Indians -1½ +190 -105 Total: 955 Boston Red Sox Over 7½ -105 956 Cleveland Indians Under 7½ -115 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 7.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt |
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.
Authors
|