Pick #1 – San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
The excitement of the playoffs is finally upon us and things are only heating up as the San Francisco Giants (87-75) against the New York Mets (87-75) and is must win for both teams as we get down to the last shots for the title. This pick will be the first time we go against a line movement as even though this 6.5 over/under MLB betting line up dropped a half point we simply can not ignore all the other signals we are getting and have to think this may be one of the lone times the sharp money has pushed a total too low to have any value. With no other options on the board were going to go with a unique read here. When see numbers like the total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games and that the total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets last 7 games at home its hard to ignore such significant trends as these. It becomes even more convincing when we note that the total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets last 7 games when playing San Francisco and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco it will take a lot of something special to have this one not go our way. While the smart money and book balancing may be a bit against us in this one we do have the public consensus on our side as 52% are on the OVER like us. The San Francisco Giants produce 4.41 runs this year and the New York Mets output 4.14 (a number on the rise) runs on the year so we get one of our favorite spots where all averages and trends get us to our mark easily. The park factor for this game is a not that helpful -90 and its a pitchers park but the numbers are too hard to ignore here. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 64°F, Sunny, Humidity is 75% and a Wind is Northeast 9 mph so no real roadblocks for the bats to get hot. Another part of this bet that should get us where we need to be is the fact that the Giants closing staff is atrocious right now which should allow the Mets to pick up some late inning scoring and pushing the best OVER. Another nice part of this pick is we get Madison Bumgarner (L) pitching who is not only a bit more off his game on the road but also holds a 3.27 ERA against the Mets this year which should spell trouble for the under. In other good news starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (R) is actually oddly enough worse at home and takes a 2.63 ERA against the Giants this year into the game tonight once again lending us combined averages that get us to where we need to go. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.3 so the OVER 6 is looking like it has a ton of value and espcially at the +105 or better price. Game Time: San Francisco Giants at New York Mets - National League Wild Card Game - Wednesday, October 05, 2016 8:00 PM Spread: 933 San Francisco Giants -1½ +160 -116 934 New York Mets +1½ -185 +106 Total: 933 San Francisco Giants Over 6 +105 934 New York Mets Under 6 -125 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 6 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
The MLB playoffs are finally here and were starting off with a gem of a game that pits the Baltimore Orioles (89-73) against the Toronto Blue Jays (89-72) in a do or die game for both teams. This pick has not seen any line movement so far and 8.5 over/under MLB line looks like it will stay steady as sharp money has not done any swaying yet but the UNDER certainly looks like the strongest play here. Breaking down the more critical stats for this extremely important face off we see that the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore's last 15 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road so its pretty clear the Orioles are simply not producing runs or allowing them lately. In addition to this we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Baltimore so we get two teams playing some serious low scoring ball here. In a game that has lots of meaning you can best believe Baltimore and Toronto will be giving everything they got in terms of shutting down their opponent but the public consensus remains undecided on what exactly that means as 51% is on the over play at this time which could change to the opposite direction at any moment. The Baltimore Orioles produce 4.59 runs this year and the Toronto Blue Jays output 4.69 runs on the year both of which are on the down swing so we still get a nice set up here. The park factor for this game is a shaky +112 but the way these two teams are playing there are few weather conditions that would help pick up the bats in this scenario. The weather at Rogers Centre is looking like 67°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 85% and Wind is Southeast so nice . In other good news the Orioles have an elite closing staff and Toronto closers are no slouches either so late inning runs should be minimal at best. A final promising angle of this pick is that Marcus Stroman (R) has been pitching some of his best baseball in September sporting a 3.41 ERA over the last month. Also working in our favor is the fact that Chris Tillman (R) has been pitching very well against Toronto this year showcasing a very lean 3.63 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.6 so the UNDER 8.5 is once again almost a full point off. Were on a bit of a hot streak and we do not see that ending with this pick. Game Time: Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays - American League Wild Card Game - Tuesday, October 04, 2016 7:00 PM Spread: 931 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -165 +130 932 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +145 -140 Total: 931 Baltimore Orioles Over 8½ +100 932 Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ -120 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 8.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt |
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