MLB Picks Wednesday 10/5/2016 – SFG vs. NYM

Pick #1 – San Francisco Giants at New York Mets

The excitement of the playoffs is finally upon us and things are only heating up as the San Francisco Giants (87-75) against the New York Mets (87-75) and is must win for both teams as we get down to the last shots for the title. This pick will be the first time we go against a line movement as even though this 6.5 over/under MLB betting line up dropped a half point we simply can not ignore all the other signals we are getting and have to think this may be one of the lone times the sharp money has pushed a total too low to have any value. With no other options on the board were going to go with a unique read here. When see numbers like the total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games and that the total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets last 7 games at home its hard to ignore such significant trends as these. It becomes even more convincing when we note that the total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets last 7 games when playing San Francisco and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco it will take a lot of something special to have this one not go our way. While the smart money and book balancing may be a bit against us in this one we do have the public consensus on our side as 52% are on the OVER like us. The San Francisco Giants produce 4.41 runs this year and the New York Mets output 4.14 (a number on the rise) runs on the year so we get one of our favorite spots where all averages and trends get us to our mark easily. The park factor for this game is a not that helpful -90 and its a pitchers park but the numbers are too hard to ignore here. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 64°F, Sunny, Humidity is 75% and a Wind is Northeast 9 mph so no real roadblocks for the bats to get hot. Another part of this bet that should get us where we need to be is the fact that the Giants closing staff is atrocious right now which should allow the Mets to pick up some late inning scoring and pushing the best OVER. Another nice part of this pick is we get Madison Bumgarner (L) pitching who is not only a bit more off his game on the road but also holds a 3.27 ERA against the Mets this year which should spell trouble for the under. In other good news starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (R) is actually oddly enough worse at home and takes a 2.63 ERA against the Giants this year into the game tonight once again lending us combined averages that get us to where we need to go. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.3 so the OVER 6 is looking like it has a ton of value and espcially at the +105 or better price.

Game Time:
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets - National League Wild Card Game - Wednesday, October 05, 2016 8:00 PM

Spread:
933 San Francisco Giants -1½ +160 -116
934 New York Mets +1½ -185 +106

Total:
933 San Francisco Giants Over 6 +105
934 New York Mets Under 6 -125

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 6 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt