9/26/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 957 Pittsburgh Pirates* -136  vs Cincinnati Reds
V Worley - R Listed   M Leake - R Listed

The Pirates have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for the month of September, going 16-4 since September 5th. They currently sit one game back of St Louis for the NL Central. You can bet that they will treat this just like a wild card game, as they try to avoid the dreaded 1 game playoff. They are starting Worley who has been virtually unhittable in September, the Pirates have won his last 4 starts, and he comes into this game with a September ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.08. He is coming off 8 innings of shutout baseball vs Milwaukee on the 21st and I like him to have another quality start today.

The Reds know their season is done, and Leake seems to have packed it in too. His September numbers are awful, for the month thus far he has pitched 21 innings, allowed 29 Hits and 19 runs, his WHIP is 1.68 and his Sept ERA is 7.71.

The Pirates have been putting up runs, as evident in last night’s 10-1 win over the Braves, they will be motivated and focuses tonight. I like them to get the win vs a Reds team that seems to have packed it in.

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8/27/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 979 Miami Marlins* +143  vs Los Angeles Angels
H Alvarez - R Listed   H Santiago - L Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.43

8/27/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 979 Miami Marlins/Los Angeles Angels* Under 8 -105 
H Alvarez - R Listed   H Santiago - L Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.95 

We have a great value play here in the rubber match here. We are getting great odds on Miami tonight. They are starting their Ace Henderson Alvarez who comes into this game riding a 4 game win streak and has only lost 2 games out of his last 10 starts. Alvarez has an ERA of 2.57 which has been very consistent all year long.

The Angels counter with Santiago, who comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak, although he hasn’t pitched poorly, the Angels just haven’t been able to give him much run support, which has been a trend for them since the All Star break.

The total has gone 8 or less in 7 of Santiago’s last 8 starts and it has gone 7 of the last 9 with Alvarez on the mound (not counting the Colorado game for obvious reasons).  I like Miami to win a close on here tonight. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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8/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Kansas City Royals* -1½ +120  vs Texas Rangers
Y Ventura - R Listed   C Lewis - R Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 2.40

KC is on fire since the All Star break. They come into this game winning 22 of their last 28. They are coming off a loss in Colorado and I like them to rebound strong tonight vs a Texas team who is the worst in the MLB at home with a home record of only 23-38.  To add to the trouble Texas hands the ball to Lewis who has the worst home ERA of any pitcher in baseball at 7.29 with a home record of 2-7.

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8/12/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Washington Nationals* -1½ +120  vs New York Mets
D Fister - R Listed   R Montero - R Listed

This one should be a fairly straight forward game for Washington. They are starting one of their Aces in Doug Fister who comes into this game at 11-3 on the year ERA at 2.49 and WHIP at 1.07. He is fresh off a 7-1 win over the Mets last outing where he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 run ball. The Nationals have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and they have won 4 of them by 2 or more runs. The one loss was a 1-2 loss to Philly. Fister’s ERA is down at 1.97 over his last 6 games.

The Mets are starting Montero who they recalled in place of Degrom. So far Montero hasn’t looked good in his 4 starts earlier this season. He has a 5.40 ERA. Reading the reviews I expect the problem with Montero will be pitch control and walks which usually leads to losses.

To make things more one sided the Nationals have 98 runs over 23 games since the All Star break good for 4.26 per game, compare that to the Mets at 77 over 24 games they are averaging only 3.20 per game. With a full run extra per game and a much better pitcher I expect this will be a decisive win for the Nationals.

My math suggests this line should be closer to -105 or -115 on the Run line here, which means we are getting 25-35% on our money. 

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Lets Get It

Rob

I am way behind in getting this updated but late is better than never.

7/11/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 921 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ -115  vs Texas Rangers
G Richards - R Listed   N Tepesch - R Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.74 

This one should be a very lopsided game. LA is firing on all cylinders and starting Richards (10-2, 2.71 ERA) is among the AL leaders in wins, ERA, strikeouts (119) and batting average against (.196). LA has scored a total of 65 runs over their last 10 games and they have won 8 of them. Texas is struggling with injuries and is a brutal 1-9 in their last 10 games including an embarrassing 15-6 loss last night.  Tepesch has struggled against strong batting teams, he got lit up by Oakland, Cleveland and Washington, I expect it to happen again tonight. 

Lets Get It

Rob

Today's Free Pick is

6/6/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 953 Milwaukee Brewers* -½ +120  vs Pittsburgh Pirates for 1st 5 Innings
K Lohse - R Listed   B Cumpton - R Listed
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.80

This is a 5 inning half run line play.

Lohse hasn’t lose since his first start on April 1st, on top of that the Brewers have had the lead by at least 1 run in every single game he has started since April 1st – 11 games in all. He has already beaten the Pirates twice this season and is 11-2 against the pirates in 21 starts since 2011. The Brewers have covered the run line in 6 of Lohse’s 12 starts this season, including both starts vs Pittsburgh.  Take either the 5 inning ML on the Brewers or the ½ run line here.

Lets Get It

Rob

We have had a nice run for free picks getting winners with both the Jays and Under in the Nationals game. 

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Today's free pick is

5/27/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 964 Toronto Blue Jays* -½ +120  vs Tampa Bay Rays for 1st 5 Innings
A Cobb - R Listed   M Buehrle - L Listed
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.80 – Buehrle is the best in the league for quality starts as a home favorite. Today he’s up against Alex Cobb who is no pushover, but I am confident the Jays have enough weapons to get the lead by the 5 inning mark. They hit Cobb well last time they faced off in Tampa, where they were up 4-0 after 5 and ended the game 4-2. Lets go with  the hottest team in Baseball with their best pitcher at home.

Lets Get IT

Rob