8/12/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Washington Nationals* -1½ +120 vs New York Mets
D Fister - R Listed R Montero - R Listed
This one should be a fairly straight forward game for Washington. They are starting one of their Aces in Doug Fister who comes into this game at 11-3 on the year ERA at 2.49 and WHIP at 1.07. He is fresh off a 7-1 win over the Mets last outing where he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 run ball. The Nationals have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and they have won 4 of them by 2 or more runs. The one loss was a 1-2 loss to Philly. Fister’s ERA is down at 1.97 over his last 6 games.
The Mets are starting Montero who they recalled in place of Degrom. So far Montero hasn’t looked good in his 4 starts earlier this season. He has a 5.40 ERA. Reading the reviews I expect the problem with Montero will be pitch control and walks which usually leads to losses.
To make things more one sided the Nationals have 98 runs over 23 games since the All Star break good for 4.26 per game, compare that to the Mets at 77 over 24 games they are averaging only 3.20 per game. With a full run extra per game and a much better pitcher I expect this will be a decisive win for the Nationals.
My math suggests this line should be closer to -105 or -115 on the Run line here, which means we are getting 25-35% on our money.
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