MLB Picks Tuesday 10/4/2016 – BAL vs. TOR

Pick #1 – Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

The MLB playoffs are finally here and were starting off with a gem of a game that pits the Baltimore Orioles (89-73) against the Toronto Blue Jays (89-72) in a do or die game for both teams. This pick has not seen any line movement so far and 8.5 over/under MLB line looks like it will stay steady as sharp money has not done any swaying yet but the UNDER certainly looks like the strongest play here. Breaking down the more critical stats for this extremely important face off we see that the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Baltimore's last 15 games and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road so its pretty clear the Orioles are simply not producing runs or allowing them lately. In addition to this we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Baltimore so we get two teams playing some serious low scoring ball here. In a game that has lots of meaning you can best believe Baltimore and Toronto will be giving everything they got in terms of shutting down their opponent but the public consensus remains undecided on what exactly that means as 51% is on the over play at this time which could change to the opposite direction at any moment. The Baltimore Orioles produce 4.59 runs this year and the Toronto Blue Jays output 4.69 runs on the year both of which are on the down swing so we still get a nice set up here. The park factor for this game is a shaky +112 but the way these two teams are playing there are few weather conditions that would help pick up the bats in this scenario. The weather at Rogers Centre is looking like 67°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 85% and Wind is Southeast so nice . In other good news the Orioles have an elite closing staff and Toronto closers are no slouches either so late inning runs should be minimal at best. A final promising angle of this pick is that Marcus Stroman (R) has been pitching some of his best baseball in September sporting a 3.41 ERA over the last month. Also working in our favor is the fact that Chris Tillman (R) has been pitching very well against Toronto this year showcasing a very lean 3.63 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.6 so the UNDER 8.5 is once again almost a full point off. Were on a bit of a hot streak and we do not see that ending with this pick.

Game Time:
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays - American League Wild Card Game - Tuesday, October 04, 2016 7:00 PM

Spread:
931 Baltimore Orioles +1½ -165 +130
932 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +145 -140

Total:
931 Baltimore Orioles Over 8½ +100
932 Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ -120

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt