MLB Picks Monday 10/10/2016 – CHI vs. SFG

Pick #1 – Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants

After a hot streak we have been a bit off these playoffs an look to get back on track with the Chicago Cubs (105-58-1) against the San Francisco Giants (88-77) in what is to be a showdown between two the top pitchers in the game right now. No line movement on any of the 3 games for tonight but we are going to take a lesson from one of our recent plays and take the UNDER here in a very similar spot that hit before. Noting and referencing numbers like the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing San Francisco we have to believe were getting off to a great start for this read. It becomes even more alluring when we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Francisco's last 15 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs which highlights the point that the trends are very much in our favor here. While the smart money and book balancing did not hit the radar for this one we do get the public consensus on our side as 58% are on the UNDER which is always a good sign. The Chicago Cubs produce 4.96 runs this year and the San Francisco Giants output 4.36 runs but these numbers are becoming less and less important as the playoffs are just a completely different beast then the regular season so were going with trends and more vital stats here. The park factor for this game is an unheard of -76 so the best pitchers in the world will get all the help in the world from Mother Nature as well. The weather at Citi Field is looking like 49°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 90% and a Wind is W 6 mph which lends to chilly conditions that should also lead to some cold bats. Another part of this bet that we have to really like is the fact that the Cubs have one of the most elite closing staffs in the game right so good luck getting any runs by them in this one. Another nice part of this pick is we get Madison Bumgarner (L) pitching at a ridiculous playoff pace and also happens to have a jaw dropping 1.32 ERA over 2 Cubs wins for the year. In other good news starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (R) pitches his best baseball of the entire year against the Giants at a 2.0 ERA over two games on the season so its hard to see the bats picking up any momentum or steam in this one. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 4.5 so the UNDER 6 not only looks super appealing for all the reasons above but we also pick some nice value up here as its a dollar ten or better in our favor.

Game Time:
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants - National League Divisional Series - Game 3 - Monday, October 10, 2016 9:35 PM

Spread:
903 Chicago Cubs -1½ +165 -106
904 San Francisco Giants +1½ -190 -104

Total:
903 Chicago Cubs Over 6 -130
904 San Francisco Giants Under 6 +110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 6 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt