MLB Picks Monday 10/17/2016 – CLE vs. TOR

Pick #1 – Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays​

Were starting to get our form back and tonight we have another great setup game to get back on track as we see the Cleveland Indians (99-67) once again take on the Toronto Blue Jays (93-75) in a series that is starting to look all but over. Once again we see a nice line movement for this one with an opening of 9 and a sharp money pressure push on the Total betting it down to 8.5 and we have to believe like last time there is something to be said about the value on taking the UNDER here. For starters the trends are almost impossible to ignore such as the fact that the total has gone UNDER in 17 of Toronto's last 22 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home. Even more encouraging is we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto and total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Cleveland creating yet another perfect storm for a low scoring pitcher friendly ballgame. The public consensus is all over this one with us after learning their the lesson the last time and 56% think the UNDER is hitting in this one. The Toronto Blue Jays produce 4.68 runs this year (consistently dropping as of late) and the Cleveland Indians output 4.80 runs (also dropping) so with the offensive production on the decline its only right to ride the heat of the UNDER play here. The park factor for this game is a bit scary at a +112 rating but with the Toronto bats being so dead there is not much to worry about here. The weather at Rogers Center is looking like 63°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 96% and a Wind that is blowing ENE at 13 mph so another ideal baseball environment for pitching to excel. Another angle of this bet that really works in our favor is that both the Indians and Blue Jays have strong bullpens which should play a vital role in keeping this MLB over/under Total a low one. Another nice part of this pick is we get Marcus Stroman (R) who has just destroyed Indians this year posting a 1.29 ERA over 14 innings pitched. In other good news starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (R) has been running through Toronto hitters this also featuring a 1.38 ERA over 13 innings. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 5.6 so the UNDER 8.5 really looks great on paper as well as when run through the AI machine so lets be happy with this play and keep the streak going with another win.

Game Time:
Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays - American League Championship Series - Game 3 - Monday, October 17, 2016 8:05 PM

Spread:
951 Cleveland Indians +1½ -130 +165
952 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +110 -175

Total:
951 Cleveland Indians Over 8½ -110
952 Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt