Pick #1 – Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers
Its another great Monday and we pick up a nice situational play as the Golden State Warriors (11-2) go up against the Indiana Pacers (7-7) giving us one good rested team against an average squad plagued by injury and coming upon a back to back. Wise money has shifted this opening NBA 222.5 over / under line all the way down to 118 mostly correcting for a missing Paul George and CJ Miles but there is still plenty of value to pick up here still. Looking deeper inside the number and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games at home so its clear the odds makers are not adjusting correctly to the Pacers swing in pace of play at home. We also notice that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State and couple all this with no Paul George its a blow out with the Pacers not keeping up with the needed scoring or energy. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 222.99 and 216.31 respectively so if we hit the defensive side we get there which should be no problem as Indiana will be forced to slow the game down drastically to have any chance. The Pacers OVER/UNDER record for the year is 3-5 at home so were really banking on a lot of very condition specific scenarios to pull us through in this one. When it comes to pace of play and possessions per game both the Warriors and the Pacers have been dipping as of late with Indiana now even falling out of the top 10 giving us an ideal time capitalize on yet unadjusted lines. The public consensus for this game is 77% in favor of the over play so while against us were going to take a different route given some key reads. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 215 so even the raw AI breakout numbers see what we see and we have to feel good about coming up with victory on this 218 UNDER play.
Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers - Monday, November 21, 2016 7:05 PM
703 Golden State Warriors -13½ -110 -1500
704 Indiana Pacers +13½ -110 +1000
703 Golden State Warriors Over 218 -110
704 Indiana Pacers Under 218 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 218 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.