NBA Picks Wednesday 11/30/2016 – MIA vs. DEN

Pick #1 – Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets​

Well its another wild wednesday in the NBA and tonight were gearing up the bankroll to throwdown on the Miami Heat (5-10) at Denver Nuggets (7-10) and we get two teams giving it there are all every night to get the season back on track. The sharp money has shown its steam causing this opening NBA 204 over / under line up to a 206 and is our first hint as to why the OVER play is extremely appealing. Following the steam and chugging along with more facts and stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games and with Goran Dragic back the pace and offense is only moving quicker which is throwing off the odds makers. On top of this the total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home so we are simply getting two teams playing at incredible tempos that are currently baffeling the lines. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 203.06 and 207.14 respectively so were counting on the lack of defense and surging offenses to be the key factors here. The total combined OVER/UNDER record for the year for both teams equals up to a mark 20-14 so again we gain value on the side were betting based on current trends. When it comes to pace of play Denver is 5th in the league overall and anytime we get a top 5 team in a favorable spot we have to feel great about taking the OVER. Even more promising is that the Nuggets are 3rd in posessions per game and the Knicks rank 30 (dropping quickly) so this game should be to slow to justify this total. The public consensus for this game is 77% in favor of the OVER so even the public is seeing the same signs that we are. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 210 so all systems are go when it comes to building confidence in this 206 OVER bringing it home for us.

Game Time:
Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets - Wednesday, November 30, 2016 9:05 PM

Spread:
515 Miami Heat +6½ -110 +220
516 Denver Nuggets -6½ -110 -260

Total:
515 Miami Heat Over 206 -110
516 Denver Nuggets Under 206 -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 206 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt