Pick #1 – Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Its the day before Thanksgiving and we get and we get a fun filled night of basketball as we hone in on the Toronto Raptors (8-6) against the Houston Rockets (9-5) game where we should see a close and slow game draw out. Expert bettors have already shot this opening NBA 219.5 over / under line down to a 216.5 pointing us in the right direction to some nice value to grab on the UNDER here. Really digging through the key facts and stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games really highlighting that the Rockets are simply not playing at the rate odds makers are expecting and this certainly looks like we have a case of it again now. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics o both these teams combined give us averages of 216.43 and 209.79 respectively so this is one of those very rare times we get so excited for where neither average eclipses the mark were trying to hit as an UNDER play. The total OVER/UNDER record for the year for the Rockets at home is 2-3 and once again we are seeing a much slower Rockets team then expected and the lines are not adjusting correctly. When it comes to pace of play Toronto is 20 overall and Houston is 14 so these are two teams on the bottom half of the charts that should lead for a huge grind it out game especially being so close in the spread. Just as stellar of leans we note that the Raptors are 18 in possessions per game while the Rockets come in at 16 (dropping) so the points and shot opportunities are going to be few and far between in this face off. The public consensus for this game is 81% in favor of the over play so while against us the reads are leading us otherwise in this spot. The computer predicted outcome of this one is 218 so its going to be the many other factors to rely on here that should easily sneak us into this 216.5 UNDER winner lean.
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets - Wednesday, November 23, 2016 8:05 PM
715 Toronto Raptors +3½ -110 +145
716 Houston Rockets -3½ -110 -165
715 Toronto Raptors Over 216½ -110
716 Houston Rockets Under 216½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 216.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.