Pick #1 – Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

The game were attacking tonight is the Kansas City Royals (72-66) versus the Minnesota Twins (51-88) which is a showdown between one team fighting for a playoff spot and another getting the golf clubs ready for the off season. We are confident from the start of this bet as the smart money has already pushed this over/under MLB total line from 8.5 to 9 making it clear out the gate that the OVER is a strong pick here. Moving right into some of the key stats for this matchup we see that total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home making it pretty obvious Minnesota is playing lackluster baseball and have no issues giving up runs. In addition to this the total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road highlighting the fact that the Royals are playing inspired baseball and really bringing it to opponents. As if these historical markers were not enough the total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Kansas City and the total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City giving us every trend imaginable pointing in the right direction. When these two teams played yesterday and the day before the scores were 10-3 and 11-5 respectively, driving home the point that these two teams are having no issues putting up runs against each other lately. Both teams look to continue plating runs and the public consensus seems to think that the trend will continue as this MLB over/under total line is a commanding favorite 80% lean towards the OVER. The Minnesota Twins produce 4.64 (been trending up) runs this year and the Kansas City Royals put up 4.15 runs on average for the season so no reason not to believe reaching the OVER is very feasible simply based on standard outputs. The park factor for this game is an almost neutral -96 rating which should give us easy conditions for the bats to remain hot. The weather at Target Field is looking like 69°F, Very Cloudy , Humidity is 89% and a Wind that is North-northeast 7 mph so very pleasant environment for the hitter to feel right at home. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Danny Duffy (L) has been pitching terrible as of late with a 6.35 ERA over the last seven days. He also just does not fair well against right handed hitting giving up a .242 batting average (6/9 LH hitters on the Twins tonight) which should make for plenty of scoring chances. Also Kyle Gibson (R) has not faired well against right (.268 average) or left handed (.338 average) hitting this year over his last 7 games he sports a miserable 7.94 ERA as well. The computer predicted score for this matchup is a staggering 12.1 so there should be no obstacles in the way for this one to easily hit OVER 9 making this a great value pick for today's schedule.

Game Time:
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins - Wednesday, September 07, 2016 8:10 PM

Spread:
975 Kansas City Royals -1½ +110 -135
976 Minnesota Twins +1½ -130 +125

Total:
975 Kansas City Royals Over 9 +100
976 Minnesota Twins Under 9 -120

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 9 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt

Pick #1 – Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians

The game were excited for on this wonderful Labor Day holiday is the Houston Astros (72-64) versus the Cleveland Indians (79-56) and should be a serious battle between two teams making strong runs at the playoffs and in the Indians case the top of their division. This pick starts off hot this holiday weekend as the smart money has already shifted the line enough to take it from an 9 over/under MLB total down a half run to an 8.5 giving us a favorable opening feel for the UNDER. Opening up some of the vital stats for this game we see that the total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 17 games when playing Houston and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against Houston giving us an unprecedented trend towards the UNDER here. These two teams played the last days and have not gone over 8 once so there is no reason to believe the bats all of a sudden pick up on holiday. Both teams look to continue their stellar pitching and defense but the public consensus seems a bit on the fence for this MLB total spread as its registering a 70% public money going the other way but I do not think this warrants deterring our read. The Cleveland Indians produce 4.93 runs this year and the Houston Astros show up with 4.60 so this is more of a trending, numbers and holiday situational play on the UNDER . The park factor for this game is a very reasonable +100 rating so nothing to be alarmed at here in terms of weather and one of the tougher hitting parks. The weather at Progressive Field is looking like 88°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 44% and the Wind is SSW 4 mph so a very nice environment for the bats to remain dead. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Michael Clevinger (R) has been pitching impeccable at home this year with an enticing 3.38 ERA for the season. He also just smokes past left right hitting giving up a minuscule 2.76 ERA (7/9 LH hitters on the Nationals). Also Michael Fiers (R) has been pitching on another level in September so far with a 1.80 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.3 so no big prediction favoritism on this bet but we have to feel great about getting the UNDER here at 8.5 which given the above should put us on the right side of the value here.

Game Time:
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians - Monday, September 05, 2016 7:10 PM

Spread:
977 Houston Astros +1½ -235 -117
978 Cleveland Indians -1½ +195 +107

Total:
977 Houston Astros Over 8½ -115
978 Cleveland Indians Under 8½ -105

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt

Pick #1 – Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

The contest were breaking down for tonight is the Chicago White Sox (63-70) versus the Minnesota Twins (50-84) which is a showcase of two teams looking to build for next year. We are intrigued from the outset of this pick as the sharp money has already shifted this over/under total line from 8.5 to 9 giving us every reason to believe the OVER is the optimal play. Diving right into some of the vital stats for this contest we note that the total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home leaving little doubt as to what the Twins bats have been capable of lately. In addition to this the total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox so we really get two very hot hitting teams facing off. When these two teams played yesterday the score was 5-8 really highlighting the fact these two ball clubs have no issues hitting high run totals when facing off against eachother lately. Both teams look to continue lighting up the scoreboard and the public consensus seems the trend will continue as this MLB over/under total is swaying heavily to one side with a 70% push towards the OVER. The Minnesota Twins produce 4.56 runs this year and the Chicago White Sox show up with 4.06 runs on average for the season so we get right near our OVER pick even under normal scoring circumstances. The park factor for this game is a not so great -96 rating but we do get an 11 MPH wind blowing right to left which should be a big help in keeping the ball moving away from the defense. The weather at Target Field is looking like 67°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 70% and the Wind is SE 10 mph so very nice conditions for the bats to be lively. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Kyle Gibson (R) has been pitching terrible as of late with a 6.75 ERA over the last seven days. He also just gets ripped by left handed hitting giving up a bloated .332 batting average (4/9 LH hitters on the White Sox tonight) which should make for a tough start and plenty of scoring opportunities. Also Carlos Rodon (L) has not faired well against right handed hitting this year serving up a batting average of .290 (6/9 RH hitters on the Twins) so lots of chances for the score to be run up in this one. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 10.2 so there should be no road blocks in the way for this one to easily hit OVER 9 making this a great value pick for today's slate.

Game Time:
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins - Friday, September 02, 2016 8:10 PM

Spread:
921 Chicago White Sox +1½ -220 -103
922 Minnesota Twins -1½ +180 -107

Total:
921 Chicago White Sox Over 9 +100
922 Minnesota Twins Under 9 -120

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 9 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt