Pick #1 – Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
The game were attacking tonight is the Kansas City Royals (72-66) versus the Minnesota Twins (51-88) which is a showdown between one team fighting for a playoff spot and another getting the golf clubs ready for the off season. We are confident from the start of this bet as the smart money has already pushed this over/under MLB total line from 8.5 to 9 making it clear out the gate that the OVER is a strong pick here. Moving right into some of the key stats for this matchup we see that total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games and that the total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home making it pretty obvious Minnesota is playing lackluster baseball and have no issues giving up runs. In addition to this the total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road highlighting the fact that the Royals are playing inspired baseball and really bringing it to opponents. As if these historical markers were not enough the total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Kansas City and the total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City giving us every trend imaginable pointing in the right direction. When these two teams played yesterday and the day before the scores were 10-3 and 11-5 respectively, driving home the point that these two teams are having no issues putting up runs against each other lately. Both teams look to continue plating runs and the public consensus seems to think that the trend will continue as this MLB over/under total line is a commanding favorite 80% lean towards the OVER. The Minnesota Twins produce 4.64 (been trending up) runs this year and the Kansas City Royals put up 4.15 runs on average for the season so no reason not to believe reaching the OVER is very feasible simply based on standard outputs. The park factor for this game is an almost neutral -96 rating which should give us easy conditions for the bats to remain hot. The weather at Target Field is looking like 69°F, Very Cloudy , Humidity is 89% and a Wind that is North-northeast 7 mph so very pleasant environment for the hitter to feel right at home. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Danny Duffy (L) has been pitching terrible as of late with a 6.35 ERA over the last seven days. He also just does not fair well against right handed hitting giving up a .242 batting average (6/9 LH hitters on the Twins tonight) which should make for plenty of scoring chances. Also Kyle Gibson (R) has not faired well against right (.268 average) or left handed (.338 average) hitting this year over his last 7 games he sports a miserable 7.94 ERA as well. The computer predicted score for this matchup is a staggering 12.1 so there should be no obstacles in the way for this one to easily hit OVER 9 making this a great value pick for today's schedule.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins - Wednesday, September 07, 2016 8:10 PM
975 Kansas City Royals -1½ +110 -135
976 Minnesota Twins +1½ -130 +125
975 Kansas City Royals Over 9 +100
976 Minnesota Twins Under 9 -120
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 9 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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