Pick #1 – Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians
The game were excited for on this wonderful Labor Day holiday is the Houston Astros (72-64) versus the Cleveland Indians (79-56) and should be a serious battle between two teams making strong runs at the playoffs and in the Indians case the top of their division. This pick starts off hot this holiday weekend as the smart money has already shifted the line enough to take it from an 9 over/under MLB total down a half run to an 8.5 giving us a favorable opening feel for the UNDER. Opening up some of the vital stats for this game we see that the total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 17 games when playing Houston and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against Houston giving us an unprecedented trend towards the UNDER here. These two teams played the last days and have not gone over 8 once so there is no reason to believe the bats all of a sudden pick up on holiday. Both teams look to continue their stellar pitching and defense but the public consensus seems a bit on the fence for this MLB total spread as its registering a 70% public money going the other way but I do not think this warrants deterring our read. The Cleveland Indians produce 4.93 runs this year and the Houston Astros show up with 4.60 so this is more of a trending, numbers and holiday situational play on the UNDER . The park factor for this game is a very reasonable +100 rating so nothing to be alarmed at here in terms of weather and one of the tougher hitting parks. The weather at Progressive Field is looking like 88°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 44% and the Wind is SSW 4 mph so a very nice environment for the bats to remain dead. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Michael Clevinger (R) has been pitching impeccable at home this year with an enticing 3.38 ERA for the season. He also just smokes past left right hitting giving up a minuscule 2.76 ERA (7/9 LH hitters on the Nationals). Also Michael Fiers (R) has been pitching on another level in September so far with a 1.80 ERA. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 9.3 so no big prediction favoritism on this bet but we have to feel great about getting the UNDER here at 8.5 which given the above should put us on the right side of the value here.
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians - Monday, September 05, 2016 7:10 PM
977 Houston Astros +1½ -235 -117
978 Cleveland Indians -1½ +195 +107
977 Houston Astros Over 8½ -115
978 Cleveland Indians Under 8½ -105
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 8.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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