Pick #1 – Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets

The weekend is finally here and that means hopefully we all get a little time off work to enjoy some NBA basketball and tonight we are going to relax while watching the Milwaukee Bucks (21-27) take on the Denver Nuggets (21-27) which should be a battle of the Mediocre which always bodes well for a nice UNDER play. This bet gets off on the right foot as a 225 OVER/UNDER opening line has now shrunk down to a 224 over / under exposing what side the sharp money is pouring in on. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road making it pretty clear the the Bucks have not been performing well while traveling lately. Just as promising the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee so these two teams are certainly no stranger to playing a slower game of basketball against each other. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 214.58 and 216.08 and we get our dream spot where the current recent averages simply do not justify at all such a high total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 64–31-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon opening up a nice over corrected value spot for us. When it comes to pace of play Milwaukee is 21 and Denver is 5 making this UNDER a super strong play as anytime we get a team out of the top 20 with such a high total we have to be licking our chops. We also note that the Bucks are 21 in possessions per game and the Nuggets are the number 5 team in the league so one again a team out of the top simply does not deserve this high of a total. The public consensus for this game is 73% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 217 so a 224 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and the AI predictor brain could not agree more.

Game Time:
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets - Friday, February 03, 2017 9:05 PM

Spread:
863 Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 -110 +110
864 Denver Nuggets -3.5 -110 -130

Total:
863 Milwaukee Bucks Over 224 -110
864 Denver Nuggets Under 224 -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 224 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt

Pick #1 – Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
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First day of February and its the month of love and we have certainly taken an affection towards the NBA basketball game that is the Indiana Pacers (25-22) versus the Orlando Magic (19-31) which presents a very interesting UNDER opportunity. This bet shapes up nicely from the get go as a 214 OVER/UNDER opening line has now shrunk down to a 212.5 over / under revealing exactly where where the smart money is siding. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games so its pretty clear success for this dominating team is coming from keeping a slower pace. Just as promising the total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 10 games making it very clear that both these teams are simply not producing offensively like the books expect. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 206.06 and 212.28 and giving us that rare value spot where the averages do not justify the total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 50–46-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon making a prime spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Indiana is 11 and Orlando is 19 making this UNDER giving us two teams out of the top ten and a super slow home team which leaves little doubt on the table about a lack of offensive opportunities tonight. We also note that the Pacers are 12 in possessions per game (trending down) and the Magic are the number 19 team in the league so one again we get two teams that are favoring the slower side of basketball right now. The public consensus for this game is 61% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 213 so a 212.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain..

Game Time:
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic - Wednesday, February 01, 2017 7:05 PM

Spread:
503 Indiana Pacers -2 -110 -130
504 Orlando Magic +2 -110 +110

Total:
503 Indiana Pacers Over 212½ -110
504 Orlando Magic Under 212½ -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 212.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt