Pick #1 – Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic
First day of February and its the month of love and we have certainly taken an affection towards the NBA basketball game that is the Indiana Pacers (25-22) versus the Orlando Magic (19-31) which presents a very interesting UNDER opportunity. This bet shapes up nicely from the get go as a 214 OVER/UNDER opening line has now shrunk down to a 212.5 over / under revealing exactly where where the smart money is siding. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games so its pretty clear success for this dominating team is coming from keeping a slower pace. Just as promising the total has gone OVER in 7 of Orlando's last 10 games making it very clear that both these teams are simply not producing offensively like the books expect. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 206.06 and 212.28 and giving us that rare value spot where the averages do not justify the total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 50–46-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon making a prime spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Indiana is 11 and Orlando is 19 making this UNDER giving us two teams out of the top ten and a super slow home team which leaves little doubt on the table about a lack of offensive opportunities tonight. We also note that the Pacers are 12 in possessions per game (trending down) and the Magic are the number 19 team in the league so one again we get two teams that are favoring the slower side of basketball right now. The public consensus for this game is 61% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 213 so a 212.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain..
Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic - Wednesday, February 01, 2017 7:05 PM
503 Indiana Pacers -2 -110 -130
504 Orlando Magic +2 -110 +110
503 Indiana Pacers Over 212½ -110
504 Orlando Magic Under 212½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 212.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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