NBA Picks Friday 2/3/2017 – MIL vs. DEN

Pick #1 – Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets

The weekend is finally here and that means hopefully we all get a little time off work to enjoy some NBA basketball and tonight we are going to relax while watching the Milwaukee Bucks (21-27) take on the Denver Nuggets (21-27) which should be a battle of the Mediocre which always bodes well for a nice UNDER play. This bet gets off on the right foot as a 225 OVER/UNDER opening line has now shrunk down to a 224 over / under exposing what side the sharp money is pouring in on. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road making it pretty clear the the Bucks have not been performing well while traveling lately. Just as promising the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee so these two teams are certainly no stranger to playing a slower game of basketball against each other. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 214.58 and 216.08 and we get our dream spot where the current recent averages simply do not justify at all such a high total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 64–31-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon opening up a nice over corrected value spot for us. When it comes to pace of play Milwaukee is 21 and Denver is 5 making this UNDER a super strong play as anytime we get a team out of the top 20 with such a high total we have to be licking our chops. We also note that the Bucks are 21 in possessions per game and the Nuggets are the number 5 team in the league so one again a team out of the top simply does not deserve this high of a total. The public consensus for this game is 73% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 217 so a 224 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and the AI predictor brain could not agree more.

Game Time:
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets - Friday, February 03, 2017 9:05 PM

Spread:
863 Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 -110 +110
864 Denver Nuggets -3.5 -110 -130

Total:
863 Milwaukee Bucks Over 224 -110
864 Denver Nuggets Under 224 -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 224 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt