Round 1 NHL Recap - Rob Holiday goes a perfect 5-0 for +11.48 units!

Rob Holiday goes 5-0 in NHL Series plays for a massive round 1 win of 11.48 units!

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Check out all the plays and Write ups sent to VIP members below.

NHL Sent April 16th

4/16/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 681 Montreal Canadiens (Series)* -110  vs Tampa Bay Lightning (Series)

Risking 2.50 To Win 2.38 - WINNER

These two teams enter the playoffs with almost identical records. The difference in my opinion is that I think the Canadians have become a better team as he season wore on, where as Tampa, after losing their star goal scorer Martin St Louis, I don't feel is quite what they were back at the beginning of the season. The other big advantage I give to the Canadiens is goal tending. Carey Price has looked dangerous lately, and if he continues his recent form, he can be the type of goalie to steal you a game AND a series. Make a 2.5 unit play on Montreal.

 NHL Sent April 16th

4/17/2014 8:05 PM NHL Hockey 689 Chicago Blackhawks (Series)* -110  vs St. Louis Blues (Series)

Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 WINNER

Neither one of these teams have looked good heading into the playoffs. Both teams in my opinion are worthy of making a deep run into the playoffs however one will go home in no more than 7 games. My bet is based on the Blackhawks getting their two star players back in Kane and Toews. The Blues also have some key player that could return from the injury list just in time for the playoffs, however the biggest question remains around Ryan Miller, one of the best goal tenders of this era, he has faltered over the last month, going 1-5 in the month of April with a paltry .885 save %. Something that will need to be improved to keep up with a healthy Blackhawks team. To compound the problem the Blues haven't been able to put the puck in the net at the other end lately either, scoring just 8 goals in their last 8 games. I am going with the Defending Stanley cup champions to get it done here

NHL Sent April 19th

4/19/2014 9:35 PM Reduced Hockey 691 Minnesota Wild (Series)* +215  vs Colorado Avalanche (Series)

Risking 2.00 To Win 4.30  - WINNER

I came close to taking the Wild in this series in the 1st place. At +215 it's a great value play especially considering how close they came to winning game 1. The Wild are one of the best teams in the NHL at home. If they can steal just one on the road I think they have a fantastic shot of taking this series. Even if they don't get it done on the road tonight they have 2 home games coming up where I expect them to play very well.

NHL Sent April 20th

4/20/2014 3:05 PM Reduced Hockey 696 Boston Bruins (Series)* -145  vs Detroit Red Wings (Series)

Risking 2.00 To Win 1.38 - WINNER

I am glad we avoided the play on Boston in game 1 as you never know how a team is going to come back into rhythm after sitting key player at the end of the regular season. Detroit winning game 1 has given us an opportunity to jump into this series and get Boston at not great, but acceptable odds. Make a 2 unit play on the best team in the NHL to get it done en route to another deep playoff run.

NHL SERIES PLAY – Sent April 22nd

4/22/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Hockey 688 New York Rangers (Series)* -125  vs Philadelphia Flyers (Series) - Note this is a SERIES bet.
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60 - WINNER

I liked New York to win this series from the start but I couldn't justify paying -145 for them before the series started. At -125 we can make this play.

Philly earned home ice advantage by winning one in New York last weekend. This however, in my analysis it doesn't really make much of a difference. New York is a better road team than they are home team anyways. Statistically the teams are very close in the win loss column. The difference comes when you drill down to individual team stats and look at how the teams have performed recently.

Looking at the Power Play and PK.
Philly is one of the most penalized teams in the league allowing 3.9 power plays against per game. New York allows the 2nd fewest at 2.8 per game. Philly also allows more shorthanded goals at 11 for the year and allowed 43 power play goals. Looking at this and factoring in what happened in game 1. This is likely to be the deciding factor for this series. New York is a FAR superior team when either shorthanded or on the Power Play.  

Looking at goals for and Against

I mentioned this in one of my emails from last week, New York holds a big advantage when you look at goals allowed in crunch time. They play far better defensive hockey and can button down when needed. They dominate the 3rd period play compared to Philly. For the regular season looking at 3rd period goals allowed New York allowed 56 3rd period goals while Philly allowed 85. Huge difference.  New York has the ability to close games out while Philly struggles. This may also come into play in overtime as the same theory applies.