NHL Pick for 1/6/2016 Leafs @ Ducks

I haven't posted much of anything for NHL yet this year but I did some work over the holidays and I have  a few models that I'm watching. 

Believe it or not we are making a play on tonight's game where the Leafs are kicking off a West coast road trip with a visit to the Pond. ​

Game Time:
Wednesday, January 06, 2016 10:05 PM

Puck Line
Toronto Maple Leafs +1½ -220
Anaheim Ducks -1½ +180

Money Line
Toronto Maple Leafs ML +143
Anaheim Ducks ML -153

Total 
Over 5 -115
Under 5 +105

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

Looking at this one the money line opened at -171 favoring the Ducks at home. The public is all over the home team with a ticket count at 63% on the Ducks. However the line is has moved a full 20% towards the Leafs showing a strong reverse line move. 

When I dig into the numbers it actually makes sense. After starting off the year with only 1 win over their first 10 games, they have turned things around and actually have a winning record since the beginning of November. They also play better on the road, away from the pressure of Toronto's hockey market. 

I do have some reservations about backing Bernier, as I think he is a terrible goal tender, but he has been doing enough to keep them in games recently, and he is slightly better on the road. 

We are following the sharp money on this one, it's one of those games where you probably won't want to watch it, but just check and see how we did in the morning. 

The Pick: Toronto ML +143

Get this line at 5Dimes. 1/6/2016 10:05 PM  Hockey 55 Toronto Maple Leafs* +143  vs Anaheim Ducks

Pick By: Rob Holiday