NFL Pick - Jets at Cowboys SNF

Week 15 features the kickoff of Thursday Night Football on Saturday – not sure why they don’t just rename it Saturday Night Football. Until just recently it looked like this could be a game with playoff implications for both teams. The Jets have played well all year, and the Cowboys just happened to be hanging on in the worst division in the NFL.

Jets vs. Cowboys Betting Odds:

Game Time:
Sat 12/19/2015 8:25PM

Spread:
New York Jets -3½ +100
@ Dallas Cowboys +3½ +110

Total:
Over 41½ -105 
Under 41½ -105 

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

Looking into this game, as of writing this article at 10AM on Friday morning, there is 81% of the money on New York. The line held firm all week at -3 until this morning when it finally jumped to -3.5. this means that there must be some serious sharp action on the Cowboys at home. There are countless systems that say take the home dog of 3 or more in primetime. But for me this one comes down to talent and motivation. The Cowboys just don’t have the talent at QB this year. They can’t get the ball to their play makers and they haven’t been able to show me anything that suggests they can overcome a very very solid Jets defense.

To make things worse, big #88 is going to get stranded out on Revis island, so that pretty much eliminates the big threat down field, The Jets have the 6th ranked run defense so I don’t see McFadden going off either. On the other side of the ball the Jets do have the firepower to score with Decker and Marshall, however they are up against a health Cowboys defense that ranks 4th against the pass. One other stat, Dallas has one of the worst home field advantages in sports, I used to think it was a result of Tony Romo performing better on the road, but it seems to be a team wide issue.

Without Tony Romo starting the Cowboys have scored a total of 2 touchdowns over their last 3 games, and I think this defensive matchup is going to be even more challenging. The Cowboys will work to slow the game down and limit possessions, the Jets will probably try to run the ball a bit more to avoid the Cowboys secondary. I could easily see the jets going up 14-0 and grinding the clock down.

This one looks to me like a snoozer. Take the Under.

The Pick:
12/19/2015 8:25 PM Football 303 New York Jets/Dallas Cowboys* Under 41½ -105 
 
Pick By Rob Holiday