Sports Picker | Expert Sports Handicapping Guaranteed
  • Welcome
  • FREE PICKS
  • Strategy
    • NFL Betting >
      • Spread Betting Explained
      • Prop Betting Strategy
      • Impact of Turnovers on Winning and Losing in the NFL
      • NFL Betting Strategy
      • Basic Strategy Teasers
      • NFL Preseason Betting Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: More Teaser Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: Covered Spread Betting with Push Charts
    • College Football Strategy: NCAA Early Season
    • How To Rate A Sports Handicapper
  • Sports Book Reviews
  • About Rob
  • 5Dimes

NCAAF Outback Bowl Pick - Northwestern vs Tennessee

12/29/2015

 
Picture
Of the five bowl games taking place on Friday, the Outback Bowl isn’t going to garner a lot of attention, as neither Tennessee nor Northwestern can be considered a marquee team. The Volunteers are favored by 9 and the total on the game has climbed to 47.5.

Game Time:
Friday 12/31/2015 4:00 PM

Spread: 
Tennessee Volunteers -9 -105
Vs Northwestern Wildcats +9  -105

Total:
Over 47.5 -105 
Under 47.5 -105 

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The fact that the 8-4 Volunteers are favored over the 10-2 Wildcats by more than a touchdown is a bit surprising. Yes, Tennessee gets the statistical advantages, due to Northwestern being blown out by Michigan and Iowa, as well as the fact that the Wildcats aren’t explosive offensively and don’t really blow teams out. Tennessee, on the other hand, put up 50 or more points for times this season, but aren’t likely to sniff that number against a Northwestern defense that is holding teams to less than 17 points a game and allowed more than 200 rushing yards just one time all season and held four teams to season lows offensively.

Both teams like to run the ball and the numbers say that Tennessee is slightly better at it, gaining 30 more yards per game and having a better average per carry, while Northwestern is more in the mold of an old-time Big Ten team in that they’re content to hammer the ball at you and gain three or four yards a pop.

Both teams have big-time running backs in Jalen Hurd and Justin Jackson and quarterback who can run the ball, although Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs is a bit better at it and more explosive. Dobbs is also a better passes than Clayton Thorson, which is something he doesn’t hear that often, but Thorson isn’t a quarterback you want to ask to lead your team on a game-winning drive.
​
Dobbs isn’t a quarterback you really want trying to lead your team from behind either, especially when facing the No. 3 team in defensive pass efficiency. The Vols are at their best when they can run and pass, although neither is going to be all that easy.

The Volunteers are more explosive on special teams, although the Wildcats are slightly better at stopping returns, which will be key. Northwestern allows 2.1 yards per punt return, while Tennessee’s Cameron Sutton led the nation in punt returns with 467 yards and an 18.7-yard average and two touchdowns. The Wildcats have a net punting average of 37.4 yards and figure to have to kick a few times due to their lackluster offense.

The key for the Wildcats is to keep the game close in the beginning, as they can’t afford to get big early, as they did in their two losses this season. Northwestern will try to play close to the vest and let their defense do their job and hopefully give the offense decent field position.

Tennessee’s four losses were all by seven points or less and included games with Alabama and Oklahoma, so they have talent, but asking them to win by more than a touchdown against a solid defense might be asking a bit much. The Wildcats aren’t likely to score a lot of points, but as long as the defense plays the way its capable of, they shouldn’t have to in order to cover the spread.

The Pick: Northwestern Wildcats +9 - Get it at 5Dimes

Guest Pick by: Allen Moody - About.com Sports Gambling Expert
Bet at 5dimes

Comments are closed.
    Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books. 
    Picture

    FREE Resources
    Strategy Articles
    Sports Book Reviews
    About Rob
    Learn To Handicap
    Daily Fantasy 
    Free Ebook
    Sports Blog
    Tweets by @robsportspicker

    Authors
    Rob Holiday - Founder

    My background is in business, specifically Behavioral Science  consulting, finance and entrepreneurship. My systems are based on financial analysis combined with a behavioral analysis approach. 

    I started Sports-Picker.com to share my love of sports and to share my picks and strategy with others.

    Archives

    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    January 2015
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013

    Categories

    All
    Daily Picks
    Daily Picks
    Fantasy
    Free Pick Fridays
    FREE Picks
    Golf
    MLB
    NBA
    NCAAB
    NFL
    NHL
    Olympics
    Recaps
    Soccer
    Strategy
    World Cup

    RSS Feed

Resources
Strategy Articles

ProLine vs Online

Corporate
Contact

Careers
Legal
Privacy
Terms
Safe Betting Sites
5dimes.com
Bet365.com


Fantasy Sports Sites
​Fanduel
**Important** The information on this site is for entertainment purposes only. I am not liable for any losses that incurred as a result of the information on this website. Any use of this information in violation of any state, federal, or local laws is prohibited. This site assumes no responsibility for the actions by and makes no representation or endorsement of any of these games and/or activities if they are illegal in the jurisdiction of the reader or client of this site.

Copyright © Sports-Picker.com 2012-2015 All Rights Reserved.
  • Welcome
  • FREE PICKS
  • Strategy
    • NFL Betting >
      • Spread Betting Explained
      • Prop Betting Strategy
      • Impact of Turnovers on Winning and Losing in the NFL
      • NFL Betting Strategy
      • Basic Strategy Teasers
      • NFL Preseason Betting Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: More Teaser Strategy
    • How to Bet on NFL: Covered Spread Betting with Push Charts
    • College Football Strategy: NCAA Early Season
    • How To Rate A Sports Handicapper
  • Sports Book Reviews
  • About Rob
  • 5Dimes