Pick #1 – Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
The NBA basketball playoffs second round is in full swing with some shocking results so far and tonight we target the Houston Rockets (60-28) versus the San Antonio Spurs (65-24) in what should be a revenge game for one of the best defensive and overall teams in the league on their home court. This bet is enticing from the start as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 217 and we are now seeing it drop a full point to 215.5 over / under line giving us that great first impression as to where the smart money is leaning and the UNDER is looking like the side to take in this contest. Combing through the numbers even more we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing San Antonio so these two teams have a strong recent history of playing paced down basketball which should play highly into favor tonight. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 220.53 and 207.48 and we are really looking to the Spurs to make the necessary adjustments on the court to hold the score much closer to the defensive averages which is what they are known for and get their home court to prove it. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 96–80-1 so we should fully expect an extreme regression back to a .500 record making the UNDER play yet another prime value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Houston is 3 and San Antonio is 27 and we can fully expect the Spurs to slow this one down to a crawl at home in order to get the win as well as get their confidence back in their style of basketball. We also note that the Rockets are 3 in possessions per game and the Spurs the number 27 team in the league (dropping drastically) and again we can fully expect the slow paced Spurs to really make a point in this pivotal game and that should produce a low scoring affair. The public consensus for this game is 54% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 215.6 so a 215.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we even get the AI predictor brain on our side in this contest.
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs - Western Conference Semifinals - Game 2 - Wednesday, May 03, 2017 9:35 PM
733 Houston Rockets +5½ -110 +195
734 San Antonio Spurs -5½ -110 -235
733 Houston Rockets Over 215.5 -110
734 San Antonio Spurs Under 215.5 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 215.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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