Pick #1 – Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Were finally getting down to crunch time in the NBA basketball playoffs and this Eastern conference finals series that pits the Cleveland Cavaliers (59-31) versus the Boston Celtics (61-34) in what should be a feeling out game for both teams where defense and calculated possessions should be the focus. This bet is favorable from the outset as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 220 and we are now seeing it fall to a 219.5 over / under line giving us that great opening read as to where the smart money is leaning and the UNDER is looking like the side to bet on in this contest. Digging through the numbers even more we see that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games when playing Boston and that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston making this a highly specific situational play that easily puts the probabilities on our side. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 218.59 and 212.07 and we get our favorite NBA betting scenario to be in where both averages easily get us to the mark we are trying to hit. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 98–81-6 so we should fully expect an extreme regression back to a .500 record making the UNDER play yet another prime value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Cleveland is 16 and Boston is 12 and we can fully expect the Celtics to slow this one down to a crawl at home in order to get that key first win. We also note that the Cavaliers are 16 (dropping) in possessions per game and the Celtics the number 15 team in the league (falling fast) and again we can fully expect a slower paced game as the all of the trends are suggesting. The public consensus for this game is 53% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 224.3 so a 219.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being off from the computer generated score.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics - Eastern Conference Finals - Game 1 - Wednesday, May 17, 2017 8:30 PM
721 Cleveland Cavaliers -4 -110
722 Boston Celtics +4 -110
721 Cleveland Cavaliers Over 219½ -110
722 Boston Celtics Under 219½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 219.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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