NBA Picks Wednesday 5/11/2016 – MIA vs. TOR

Pick #1 – Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors​

What happens when an NBA series is tied 2 – 2 late in the second round? Of course it is anyone's guess but looking at the Miami Heat versus Toronto Raptos matchup we have to think the stage is set for a bit of an offensive push. An absolute must win for both teams the Heat hold a less then impress ive 5-5 win record over there last 10 which is similar to the Raptors 6-4 prior 10 game record. The Miami Heat (54-39) and the Toronto Raptors (62-31) are both playing focused basketball that needs to be taken up a notch or two by whoever expects to pull out the win. The Heat are reporting Chrish Bosh and Hassan Whiteside on the sidelines while the Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas on the sidelines. Not that impactful of news with a lot of the big men out it does mean we should lean towads more of a shooting and outside game. This is a very matchup playoff specific condition tonight and we have to feel confident in all aspects of the OVER for the following reasons. The total over/under overall Recrod for Toronto on the entire season at home is 26 – 21 giving us a favorable push towards the OVER. While these two teams are not known to play particularily fast against each other the nature of this game really stands to bring out some offense. The offensive and defensive combined stats over the last 10 games are 188 and 185 respectively so were hitting right where we need to be consistently and the magnitude of this game is what will get us over the mark. The over/under for this NBA spread total opened at 187 and has since bumped up to 188.5 so we know the money is moving taowards the OVER making it a super sharp play tonight. The Raptors lost by 7 points last game so they are really going to need to bring on the offensive side tonight. The public consensus for this game is 54% so we have the public shading this one towards our way as well. The last plyaoff game two days ago in Miami between these two Eastern conference rivals resulted in a 94 – 87 win for the Heat so we have to think the Raptors are geared to prove a point and push the pace at home. We have to feel great about the OVER 188.5 as prior conditions have lead us to the spot we have here and this one should bring us home some nice value.

Game Time:
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors - Eastern Conference Playoffs Semi-Finals - Game 5 - Wednesday, May 11, 2016 8:00 PM

Spread:
537 Miami Heat +4½
538 Toronto Raptors -4½

Total:
537 Miami Heat Over 188½
538 Toronto Raptors Under 188½

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 188.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt