NBA Picks Wednesday 4/26/2017 – WSH vs. ATL

Pick #1 – Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks​

The 1st round of the NBA basketball playoffs is still heating up strong and tonight we target the Washington Wizards (45-41) versus the Atlanta Hawks (51-35) and with an even series this is sure to be a blockbuster game with tons of offensive action and urgency. This pick peaks our interest out the gate as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 212 and we are now seeing it inch upwards all the way to a resting spot of 212.5 over / under line giving us that first initial impression as to where the smart money is moving and the OVER is starting to open up as the side to be on. Investigating deeper into the stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games at home reall highlighting the fact that the favored Wizards really like to push the pace at home which should be no different tonight as they control the temple of the game. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 212.43 and 211.52 and it should be the recent track record of this series that really suggests the OVER mark will be easy to break through in this specific contest. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 86–81-5 and even though the mean regression is siding towards the under we still like this value spot given the fact that is now the playoffs where everything is re-setting and the stakes are rising. When it comes to pace of play Atlanta is 10 and Washington is 11 giving us two essentially top 10 NBA teams in terms of offensive speed and production which bodes well for scorching this reasonably low total for such a circumstance. We also note that the Hawks are 10 in possessions per game (soaring to new heights) and the Wizards the number 11 team in the league (also skyrocketing upwards) and once again these are two teams both playing at elevated offensive paces with a lot on the line so there should be plenty of scoring fireworks in this one. The public consensus for this game is 55% in favor of the over so it will be interesting to see where this one lands. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 211.4 so a 212.5 OVER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain being slightly off from our prediction.

Game Time:
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards - Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 5 - Wednesday, April 26, 2017 6:00 PM

Spread:
709 Atlanta Hawks +6 -110 +205
710 Washington Wizards -6 -110 -245

Total:
709 Atlanta Hawks Over 212½ -110
710 Washington Wizards Under 212½ -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
OVER 212.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt