Pick #1 – Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
What a rush it is to get to watch the NBA basketball playoffs and tonight we target the Oklahoma City Thunder (47-36) versus the Houston Rockets (56-27) and after watching the first game its clear one team is on an entirely other level then the other. This bet draws our attention from the start as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 224 and we are now seeing it dipping a lot so far to where it is has finally ended up which is back to a 224 over / under (fallen as low as 222.5 so far) giving us that great first lead and glimpse as to where the sharp money is moving and the UNDER is starting to reveal itself as the stronger possible outcome. Digging deeper into the stats we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games on the road and OKC is simply not playing the kind of basketball that can hit the totals that Houston is currently drawing. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 221.63 and 215.29 and we get our absolute favorite spot to be and that is where even if both teams play optimally the outcomes still falls into our picks favor. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 76–83-7 and even though the mean is siding towards the under we still like this value spot given the fact that is now the playoffs where everything is re-setting. When it comes to pace of play Oklahoma City is 8 and Houston is 3 but this is a very playoff specific situation where its clear OKC just does not have the offensive power to keep up. We also note that the Thunder are 7 in possessions per game and the Rockets (slowing down as well) the number 3 team in the league and once we are seeing how the Thunder's slow recently is even starting to rub off on the high powered Rockets. The public consensus for this game is 51% in favor of the over so it will be interesting to see where this split decision finally winds up before tip. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 220.8 so a 224 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we even get the AI predictor brain on our side for this one.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets - Western Conference Playoffs First Round - Game 2 - Wednesday, April 19, 2017 8:00 PM
703 Oklahoma City Thunder +8 -110 +300
704 Houston Rockets -8 -110 -360
703 Oklahoma City Thunder Over 224 -110
704 Houston Rockets 224 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 224 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.