Pick #1 – Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Well sadly its the final day of the NBA season and oh what a season it has been but the good news is we get one last full slate of NBA basketball and tonight we target the Milwaukee Bucks (42-39) versus the Boston Celtics (52-29) giving us one team playing for everything (1st in playoff seeding) and a team playing for nothing (resting all stars for the playoff run). This bet is highly appealing upon first look as some books OVER/UNDER line opened at 208.5 and we are now seeing it drop with conviction all the way down to a 206 over / under giving us a nice inclination as to where the sharp money is shifting and the UNDER is starting to reveal itself as the value play. Picking apart the key stats even more we note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games really highlighting the fact that the Bucks are just slowing things down lately as they save and gear up for their playoff push. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 211..7 and 209.22 and a real key to remember here is that all the good Bucks are sitting so the offensive power will be completely depleted from one side. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 81–78-3 and this is the perfect time to see that final pullback to even that we always know is going to occur organically throughout the season. When it comes to pace of play Milwaukee is 26 and Boston is 12 and we are really looking for the Celtics to crush here as the game is dragged out by the much slower Bucs. We also note that the Bucks are 26 in possessions per game (dropping fast) and the Celtics the number 13 team in the league and here again the Bucks current team state is no where firing on enough cylinders to justify such a high total. The public consensus for this game is 100% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 209.7 so a 206 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain seeing it slightly off from us.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics - Wednesday, April 12, 2017 8:05 PM
711 Milwaukee Bucks +14 -110 +1050
712 Boston Celtics -14 -110 -1600
711 Milwaukee Bucks Over 206 -110
712 Boston Celtics Under 206 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 206 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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