NBA Picks Wednesday 3/15/2017 – DAL vs. WSH

Pick #1 – Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards

Do you smell that? Its basketball in the air and tonight NBA basketball presents us with a juicy 10 game slate as we carve out our favorite game which will be the Dallas Mavericks (28-38) versus the Washington Wizards (41-25) pitting one of the best against one of the worst. This bet is very enticing upon initial glance as some books OVER/UNDER line started at 208 and we are now seeing plenty of downwards jumps and have finally settled on a 207 over / under giving us a nice opening read as to where the sharp money is being wagered. Breaking down the contest even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 13 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing on the road against Washington giving us two teams that do not perform well offensively against each other and one team that is playing basketball at a turtle life pace as of late. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 207.19 and 206.59 and we get our absolute favorite spot to be in where even the far edges of the averages do not produce results that break our pick. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 68–63-1 and right now we are witnessing the middle regression we know always occurs making it a prime time to grab some of the value while its happening. When it comes to pace of play Dallas is 29 and Washington is 11 giving us a situation where virtually the slowest team of the league is facing a total they rarely break. We also note that the Mavericks are 29 in possessions per game and the Wizards are the number 12 team in the league so here again we get ta team favorite to target on UNDER'S as Dallas simply takes every opportunity to slow down games and over offense. The public consensus for this game is 57% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 214.8 so a 207 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go even if off slightly from the AI predictor.

Game Time:
Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards - Wednesday, March 15, 2017 7:05 PM

Spread:
603 Dallas Mavericks +7 -110 +260
604 Washington Wizards -7 -110 -320

Total:
603 Dallas Mavericks Over 207 -110
604 Washington Wizards Under 207 -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 207 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt