Pick #1 – Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
2017 is shaping up nicely so far and things should only get better as we get to bet the NBA basketball game between the Portland Trail Blazers (15-21) versus the Golden State Warriors (30-5) which will be a case of feast and famine as a great team takes on an injured and struggling squad. This pick looks appealing from the start as the sharp money is already moving this 225 OVER/UNDER down to a 223.5 over / under giving us a strong read on this UNDER pick from the get go. Breaking down game angles further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 14 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home so once again we get a home team that should control the game as we need which is on the slower side. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games so we get two teams playing paced down basketball facing off which should provide a ton of value. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 224.67 and 215.57 giving us a defensive upside towards the UNDER that is just too hard to ignore in this spot. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 37 - 24 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and we will gladly ride that adjustment. When it comes to pace of play Portland is 11 and Golden State is 3 but these two teams are sliding in the slower direction as evidenced with all the other details. Facts such as the Trail Blazers are 10 in posessions per game (dropping huge) and the Warriors are the number 3 team in the league (dropping drastically) so there should be absolutely no absence of a slowed down game by the home team bringing home an easy win. The public consensus for this game is 68% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 211 so a 223.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like the winner we need to bring home our winning pick of 2017.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors - Wednesday, January 04, 2017 10:35 PM
511 Portland Trail Blazers +16 -110 +1450
512 Golden State Warriors -16 -110 -2750
511 Portland Trail Blazers Over 223½ -110
512 Golden State Warriors Under 223½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 223.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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