Pick #1 – Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers
Huge 10 game slate in NBA basketball tonight and our favorite game is looking like its the Los Angeles Lakers (16-32) versus the Portland Trail Blazers (19-27) setting the stage for two mediocre teams to do battle. This pick starts off strong as the smart money is already moving this 226 OVER/UNDER opening line down to a 220 over / under giving us a nice hint as to where this bet should be heading. Breaking down the matchup further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games highlighting the fact that the Lakers are simply not playing at there usual pace. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Portland's last 10 games at home and again we get a team showing signs that they are slowing it up as of late. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 211.58 and 220.92 and its the poor recent offensive showings of both teams that should get us where we need to go. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 53–41 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and this makes it yet another bet that features lots of value. When it comes to pace of play Los Angeles is 6 and Portland is 10 making this UNDER play a bit deceiving as these two quicker teams have really slowed it down offensively as of late. We also note that the Lakers are 11 in possessions per game and the Trail Blazers are the number 7 team in the league but its the recent offensive outputs from each squad that will really give us our edges here. The public consensus for this game is 55% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 215 so a 220 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and AI brain could not agree more.
Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers - Wednesday, January 25, 2017 10:35 PM
519 Los Angeles Lakers +8½ -110 +335
520 Portland Trail Blazers -8½ -110 -420
519 Los Angeles Lakers Over 220 -110
520 Portland Trail Blazers Under 220 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 220 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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