Pick #1 – Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
Losers of their last 6 out of 8 games the Heat are starting to look like the hobbled team they are. On the other side of the spectrum the Wizards are starting to get healthy again and are heating up showcasing a 4-2 record over the last 6 games despite being on a two game losing streak as they acclimate Beal back into the starting rotation. Our opening insight into comes in the form of recent history where just a mere 17 days ago on January 3rd these two teams squared off to a lowly scoring effort in a 95 -75 win by the Heat. One thing was obvious in that game. These two teams struggle to put up pints against each other. Even more startling is that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games showing a clear trend that the heat are having trouble scoring without there floor leader Goran Dragic. The Wizards need to win by +4.5 points so it should be a close game where both teams have to take there time when trying to execute on every possession. Looking at the averages of both teams combined they score a collective 198.1 points while giving up 199.6 on defense placing our NBA total over/under a smidge over the target but these stats do not reveal the real rates due to current injuries and trending pace of play. Now here is where the stats get very juicy when considering this NBA total over/under pick. Reviewing the consensus bets as of now the over /under for this game is showing by far the highest positional percentages on the board with 91% on the under. Opening as high as 198 on some betting sites the smart money has pounded this one down the 197 as we are seeing in most places at the time of this writing. Hanging on 207.5 for a long time the smart money really seems to be piling up on the under in this game. Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home and Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games so its anybody's guess who covers this one. One interesting note is that the Washington Wizards field goal percentage has averaged 45.35% this year which is a tad less than the Miami Heats record of 45.85%% shooting which is a bit miss leading. This matchup is basically a slowed down Miami team versus a Wizards team just trying to get themselves back offensively. We look for the smart money and trending tempos to take precedent here and roll with the UNDER 197.
Wednesday, January 20th, 2016 7:00 PM
503 Miami Heat +4½
504 Washington Wizards -4½
503 Miami Heat Over 197
504 Washington Wizards Under 197
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
Under 197 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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