Pick #1 – Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
NBA basketball sure is in full swing for 2017 and this 9 game slate gives us a gem of a matchup between the Indiana Pacers (21-19) and the Sacramento Kings (16-24) in what should be a game controlled by the slower home team pace. This pick sends off the right indicators from the get go as the sharp bettors are already moving this 217 opening OVER/UNDER line by moving it down to a 214.5 over / under and this is the type of information we like to see when formulating an UNDER play. The recent offensive and defensive performance data for these two teams give us averages of 208.53 and 212.28 and we get one of our absolute favorite scenarios to be in and that is where the averages simply can not back up such a robust total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 42–38 so we should fully expect a regression back to a .500 record making the UNDER play yet another great value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Indiana is 8 and Sacramento is 23 and we should fully expect one of the slowest teams in the league to dictate the game tempo on their home court. We also note that the Pacers are 9 in possessions per game and the Kings are the number 23 team in the league and so once again we get one of the slowest teams in the league at home with a total that is just too high. The public consensus for this game is 66% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus public fade that we always like to have on our side in this UNDER play as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 218 so a 214.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain.
Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings - Wednesday, January 18, 2017 10:35 PM
515 Indiana Pacers +1½ -110 +105
516 Sacramento Kings -1½ -110 -125
515 Indiana Pacers Over 214½ -110
516 Sacramento Kings Under 214½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 214.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.