Pick #1 – Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Second round of the NBA basketball playoffs are winding doubt but the action is not and tonight we get the Golden State Warriors (74-15) facing off against the Utah Jazz (55-37) in what is a must win game for Jazz to avoid the embarrassment of a 4 game sweep which should be some extra incentive to perform at a higher level tonight. This pick has been moving up and down a half point over the day so far with most books OVER/UNDER line opening at 206.5 and shuffling back and forth to finally land on the same 206.5 over / under line so we will be forced to rely on some the finer details in this contest to predict the most probable outcome. Breaking open the key stats we see that the total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road and the total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games at home so we should get a perfect storm tonight where both teams will turn up the offensive tenacity. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 216.2 and 201.07 and we are going to lean on the potent Warriors offense and the Jazz need to keep up at all costs to really carry this one home for us. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 82–99 so we should fully expect an extreme regression back to a .500 record making the OVER play yet another prime value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Golden State is 4 and Utah is 30 and the favored Warriors should be able to exert their offensive will and the Jazz will have no choice but to run and gun to keep up. We also note that the Warriors are 4 in possessions per game and the Jazz the number 30 team in the league (rising nicely) but once again we are going to trust the data and breakdown which is all pointing to plenty of scoring in this crucial playoff game. The public consensus for this game is 66% in favor of the over so it will be very interesting to see where this one finally falls. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 205.6 so a 206.5 OVER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain.
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz - Western Conference Semifinals - Game 4 - Monday, May 08, 2017 9:00 PM
701 Golden State Warriors -8½ -110 -420
702 Utah Jazz +8½ -110 +335
701 Golden State Warriors Over 206½ -110
702 Utah Jazz Under 206½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
OVER 206.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
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