NBA Picks Monday 4/3/2017 – POR vs. MIN

Pick #1 – Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves

MLB is finally here and today is the first full slate of the season and while were excited about baseball we will pick it up in a week or so after watching closely how the season starts but for now we will stick with NBA basketball and tonight we set our sights on the Portland Trail Blazers (38-38) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (30-45) giving us a team who must win versus a team who is already a lost cause. This bet is highly encouraging upon first glance as some books OVER/UNDER line started at 217 and we are now seeing it fall to a 215.5 over / under giving us every reason to believe the sharp money is siding on the UNDER's direction as the savvy play. Diving in depth into the match up we note that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Minnesota so we get the trend and matchup specific value in our favor which is always a nice spot to be in. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 213.94 and 215.25 and we get that oh so valuable scenario where both averages take us to our UNDER goal even at the peak levels of performance. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 80–69-2 and so we should fully expect an extreme regression back to a .500 record making the UNDER play yet another great value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Portland is 12 and Minnesota is 23 giving us one of the slowest teams in the league who care even less about scoring. We also note that the Trail Blazers are 9 in possessions per game and the Timberwolves the number 24 team in the league and its these teams recent performances that have us in a great position to get a low scoring affair here. The public consensus for this game is 65% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 220.9 so a 215.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain not seeing it the same way.

Game Time:
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves - Monday, April 03, 2017 7:00 PM

Spread:
801 Portland Trail Blazers +2 -110 +110
802 Minnesota Timberwolves -2 -110 -130

Total:
801 Portland Trail Blazers Over 215½ -110
802 Minnesota Timberwolves Under 215½ -110

Betting odds provided by 5Dimes

The Pick:
UNDER 215.5 (2 Units)

As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!

Picks By TexasMatt