Pick #1 – Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
Suffice it to say its nice to have the NBA playoffs almost here but tonight as the regular season winds down we will set our sights on an NBA basketball's playoff race and tonight we will target the Washington Wizards (48-32) versus the Detroit Pistons (37-43) giving us two teams that should have no interest in performing well as one will be resting and the other has given up on the season. This bet is highly appealing upon first look as some books OVER/UNDER line started at 210.5 and we are now seeing it fall continually as we now find it resting at a 208.5 over / under giving us strong hints as to where the savvy money is shifting and the UNDER is starting to reveal itself as the sharper bet. Diving deeper into the stats we note that the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 13 games and this really highlights the fact that Pistons just have no interest in playing any type of uptempo or inspired offensive basketball. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 210.56 and 209.72 and this pick is a very situation specific bet that has a lot to do with the end of season. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 84–75-1 and this is the perfect time to see that final pullback to the mean that we always know is going to occur naturally. When it comes to pace of play Washington is 11 and Detroit is 25 and the at home play of Pistons will simply stifle the offense of this game so much that the total we are seeing here is just too high. We also note that the Wizards are 11 in possessions per game (dropping fast) and the Pistons the number 25 team in the league (also trending way down) and here again we get two teams that are showing a high propensity to score below expected value making this a great spot to be in. The public consensus for this game is 59% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 210.8 so a 208.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite the AI predictor brain seeing it slightly off from us.
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons - Monday, April 10, 2017 8:05 PM
707 Washington Wizards +4 -110 +150
708 Detroit Pistons -4 -110 -170
707 Washington Wizards Over 208.5 -110
708 Detroit Pistons Under 208.5 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 208.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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