Pick #1 – Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets
Exciting times in sports with MLB baseball opening day less then a month away and we also get a 12 game slate of NBA basketball tonight to tide us over and we set our sights on the Sacramento Kings (25-37) versus the Denver Nuggets (28-34) presenting a game that hosts two mediocre teams that are in the must win phases of their seasons. This pick jumps off the page at first sight as it opened in some books as high as 219.5 OVER/UNDER line and has now shrunk to a 216 over / under really providing insight as to just where the sharp money has been funneled. Breaking down the contest even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of Sacramento's last 8 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home really setting the stage for a slowed down game from two teams that are simply not up to par when it comes to there offensive selves. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 213.36 and 217 and we land in that rare value spot where both averages do not even pull the game total up to where it needs to be. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 66–57-1 so we should fully expect a strong pull back to the median making the UNDER play yet another great value spot to be in. When it comes to pace of play Sacramento is 27 and Denver is 8 giving us a situation where we get a team almost dead last in the league in offensive speed facing a total that is simply to high. We also note that the Kings are 24 in possessions per game and the Nuggets are the number 9 team in the league (dropping significantly) so here again we get the favored team at home playing a slower style of basketball recently going up against a team that enjoys a slower run as well. The public consensus for this game is 56% in favor of the OVER so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 206.3 so a 216 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we get the final confidence builder with the AI predictor brain also agreeing.
Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets - Monday, March 06, 2017 9:05 PM
521 Sacramento Kings +13½ -110 +950
522 Denver Nuggets -13½ -110 -1450
521 Sacramento Kings Over 216 -110
522 Denver Nuggets Under 216 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 216 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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