Pick #1 – Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors
New Monday and that means a fresh start after a wild and spectacular Super Bowl its time to get back into the NBA basketball as we plan to laser in on the Los Angeles Clippers (31-20) versus the Toronto Raptors (31-21) which pits two very even teams dealing with some injuries and both coming off back to backs which should give us a much slower game then usual. This bet gets off on the right foot as a 216 OVER/UNDER opening line has now been whittled down to a 213.5 over / under exposing what side the savvy money is picking in this spot. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games which gives us a home team favorite that should control the pace of play which is a great sign for this UNDER bet. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 217.33 and 209.21 and we are going to bank on the defensive side and injuries to star players here to bring this UNDER home. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 58–44-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean on the UNDER happening frequently which sets up a nice over correction in our favor. When it comes to pace of play Los Angeles is 16 and Toronto is 21 and its always nice to get an UNDER play on a high total from two bottom of league teams in terms of pace of play. We also note that the Clippers are 18 in possessions per game and the Raptors are the number 21 team in the league (and dropping) so once again two teams this low on the charts simply do not deserve this high of a total. The public consensus for this game is 66% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 218 so a 213.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain.
Los Angeles Clippers at Toronto Raptors - Monday, February 06, 2017 7:35 PM
507 Los Angeles Clippers +5 -110 +175
508 Toronto Raptors -5 -110 -210
507 Los Angeles Clippers Over 213½ -110
508 Toronto Raptors Under 213½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 213.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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