Pick #1 – Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics
Mondays may mean getting back to work but they also mean we get to pick up some great NBA basketball as well and tonight we will be feasting our eyes on the Atlanta Hawks (32-26) versus the Boston Celtics (38-21) which are two very solid teams trying to make their postseason pushes. This pick starts off highly intriguing as many shops opened it at a 215 OVER/UNDER opening line has compared to its now 212.5 over / under hinting as to what the sharp money is up to as well as where the value lies. Dissecting the match up even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games and that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Atlanta giving us both past and recent history of these two teams simply playing slower then normal and especially against one another and Boston being the better and slower team on paper has all the makings for this bet coming through. The season offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 211.36 and 209.86 givings us one of those rare occasions we always get excited about where the averages on both sides of the ball in now way justify the total. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 54–61-2 and it will be interesting to see how tight this spread stays throughout the rest of the season. When it comes to pace of play Atlanta is 11 and Boston is 18 and we will gladly take this high UNDER as once again we get the better, slower team playing on their home court. We also note that the Hawks are 10 in possessions per game (dropping) and the Celtics are the number 18 team in the league (falling fast) so once again we get two teams that are not performing as optimally offensively as they once were setting us up for a nice play on an over estimated line. The public consensus for this game is 57% in favor of the OVER so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 209 so a 212.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and we get the cherry on top with the AI predictor brain also agreeing.
Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics - Monday, February 27, 2017 7:35 PM
507 Atlanta Hawks +4½ -110 +160
508 Boston Celtics -4½ -110 -185
507 Atlanta Hawks Over 212½ -110
508 Boston Celtics Under 212½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 212.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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