Pick #1 – Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks
Its just another magic Monday and no better way to start off the week then with some NBA basketball and tonight we dial in on the Boston Celtics (35-19) versus the Dallas Mavericks (22-32) which gives a hot team against one that is struggling to get back on track. This wager starts of well as a 209 OVER/UNDER opening line has now shrunk down to a 208.5 over / under (been as low as 207.5) highlighting exactly what side the smart bettors are taking. Dissecting the match up even further we take note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of Boston's last 18 games when playing on the road against Dallas so we get the better team not playing slow right now but also historically against this specific opponent as well. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 206.52 and 205.98 and we get that oh so valuable scenario where both averages take us to our UNDER goal even at maximum performance levels. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 54–53-1 and we are right in the midst of the stats reversing back to dead even on the UNDER picking up a nicely trending value spot for us. When it comes to pace of play Boston is 18 and Dallas is 29 and we will gladly take this high UNDER from two teams that are almost the bottom half of the league it comes offensive speed. We also note that the Celtics are 17 in posessions per game (dropping drastically as of late) and the Mavericks are the number 29 team in the league so once again two teams this low on the list simply do not justify this high of a total and we get a Dallas team controling the pace at home who is pretty much slowest in the entire league. The public consensus for this game is 73% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this spot also. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 210 so a 20.8 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slighty off from the AI predictor brain.
Boston Celtics at Dallas Mavericks - Monday, February 13, 2017 8:35 PM
513 Boston Celtics -2 -110 -130
514 Dallas Mavericks +2 -110 +110
513 Boston Celtics Over 208½ -110
514 Dallas Mavericks Under 208½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 208.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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