Pick #1 – Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Its a rare Monday where the slate has pretty slim pickings but we still find a nice gem for tonights NBA basketball as we get the Dallas Mavericks (11-26) versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (11-26) and its a battle of slowest and the worst from all sides. This pick looks juicy from the start as the sharp money is already moving this 199.5 opening OVER/UNDER down to a 195 over / under really hghlightng where the value is ending up tonight. Breaking down the matchup further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games really showcasing the fact that the Timberwolves are simply playing slow basketball right now with no change in sight. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road so we get two teams going at it that are both playing paced down games right now. The recent offensive and deffensive performance statistics give us averages of 198.3 and 205.51 and its really the poor and struggling offenses that should really send this UNDER home tonight. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 33–40-1 and it will be interesting to see if this trend continues. When it comes to pace of play Dallas is 29 and Minnesota is 25 so we litteraly almost two of the slowest teams going up against each other which will almost assure a low scoring affair.. We also note that the Mavericks are 29 in posessions per game and the Timberwolves are the number 25 team in the league (dropping drastically) so there should be absolutely no absence of poor and slow offensive play. The public consensus for this game is 67% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 199 so a 195 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should play into our favore despite what the AI brain says.
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves - Monday, January 09, 2017 8:05 PM
703 Dallas Mavericks +4½ -110 +165
704 Minnesota Timberwolves -4½ -110 -190
703 Dallas Mavericks Over 195 -110
704 Minnesota Timberwolves Under 195 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 195 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.