Pick #1 – Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns
Hope the week is starting off amazing for everyone and it should get even better as we are gifted with the chance to watch some NBA basketball as the Memphis Grizzlies (28-21) take the Phoenix Suns (15-32) which is a current tale of really good versus really bad. This pick starts off in our favorite type of light as the savvy money is already moving this 210 OVER/UNDER opening line down to a 208 over / under giving us a lead reason to believe this has nothing but the UNDER written all over it. Breaking down the contest even further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 9 of Memphis's last 11 games when playing on the road against Phoenix so its nice to have a solid historical foundation of paced down basketball between these two. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 206.52 and 211.63 and its the lack of offense combined with an extremely tough defense that should easily take us home here. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 54–41-1 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and we always love to wind up where numbers should be merging more appropriately. When it comes to pace of play Memphis is 28 and Toronto is 3 making this UNDER play an extremely nice look as we get an UNDER where the much better team should be able to control the game enough that it follows a Memphis slowed down style of basketball. We also note that the Grizzlies are 26 in possessions per game (also currently trending down at an unheard of rate) and the Suns are the number 3 team in the league (dropping as well as of late) so one again we get one of slowest teams in league playing even slower in a matchup they should completely control which highly favors our UNDER position. The public consensus for this game is 69% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 215 so a 208 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI predictor brain..
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns - Monday, January 30, 2017 10:35 PM
509 Memphis Grizzlies -3½ -110 -165
510 Phoenix Suns +3½ -110 +145
509 Memphis Grizzlies Over 208 -110
510 Phoenix Suns Under 208 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 208 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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