Pick #1 – Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks
Time to kick off the week in style as we get the incredible opportunity to take in the NBA basketball that will pit the Houston Rockets (34-13) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (20-23) giving us two teams whose play has left a lot to be desired as of late. This pick peaks our interests from the start as the smart money is already moving this 228 OVER/UNDER opening line down to a 224 over / under giving us every indication as to where this bet should be heading. Breaking down the matchup further we see that the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games so we get the faster team playing slower basketball as of late which will go along way towards helping keep this one low scoring. The recent offensive and defensive performance statistics give us averages of 218.91 and 211.49 and we get the dream scenario where averages in no way justify where the total is being set and this is simply far to high considering how these two teams are trending in performance. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 52–38 so we should fully expect a regression back to the mean towards the UNDER happening soon and this makes it yet another amazing spot to bet into. When it comes to pace of play Houston is 4 and Milwaukee is 21 and we get one of our favorite set up spots where the home team should control pace and play giving us the slowed down offensive game that we need to bust these high totals. We also note that the Rockets are 4 in possessions per game (dropping) and the Bucks are the number 21 team in the league (dropping drastically) so there should be absolutely no absence of a defensive minded pace in this one. The public consensus for this game is 55% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus and public fade that we always like to have on our side in this one as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 221 so a 224 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go and AI brain could not agree more.
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks - Monday, January 23, 2017 8:05 PM
511 Houston Rockets -5 -110 -220
512 Milwaukee Bucks +5 -110 +180
511 Houston Rockets Over 224 -110
512 Milwaukee Bucks Under 224 -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 224 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
Picks By TexasMatt
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.