Pick #1 – Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
For the Raptors things are looking up. They are on a four game win streak and playing strong basketball. Its exactly the opposite for the Nets. Losers of their last 8 out of 10 games they are really struggling to stay competitive amid a flurry of injuries. One strong insight into this game is that these two teams played just a mere 12 days ago on January 6th resulting in a Toronto win 91 -74. One thing was clear in that game. These two teams do not put up a lot of points when they face each other. Even more interesting is that the total has gone UNDER in 8 of Brooklyn's last 10 games showing a clear pattern that Brooklyn is having trouble scoring while at the same time still playing reasonable defense. The Raptors need to win by +11.5 points so they are really going to have to keep the Nets against the ropes defensively to hold that line. Looking at the averages of both teams combined they score a collective 195.9 points while giving up 199.8 putting our Total almost square in the middle of that number. Now here is where things get very appealing for the pick we like. Reviewing the consensus bets so far the over /under for this game is showing one of the highest positional percentages on the board with 68% on the under which is one of the highest on the plate today. Opening as high as 203.5 on some sites the odds started high but sank quickly down the 197.5 we are seeing in most places a the time of this writing. Hanging on 108.5 for a long time the smart money really seems to be piling on the under in this game. Brooklyn is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road and Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home so this will probably wind up being a low scoring game with the Nets having a good chance to cover. One interesting note is that The Toronto Raptors field goal percentage has averaged 43.95% this year which is less than the Brooklyn Nets who have made 44.47% of there shots per game which lends even more credibility to a Nets cover and a Total under. Some the faster paced more offensive minded players are out in Jarret Jack and DeMarre Carroll so we have to think the pace should continue between these two teams and follow last games not so distant example. We have been watching the smart money and correlated line moves all morning so lets fire on the under here and we will take it at 197.5.
Monday, January 18, 2016 7:35 PM
513 Brooklyn Nets +11½
514 Toronto Raptors -11½
513 Brooklyn Nets Over 197½
514 Toronto Raptors Under 197½
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
Under 197.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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