Pick #1 – Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics
Hope everyone is enjoying celebrating Martin Luther King Jr. day and hopefully we will also be enjoying a win at the books tonight as we get and enticing NBA basketball between the Charlotte Hornets (24-15) and the Boston Celtics (22-16) in a game that pits two teams headed in opposite directions of the win column. This pick sends off signals from the start as the savvy bettors are already impacting this 217 opening OVER/UNDER line by moving it down to a 215.5 over / under and this is the type of hint we like to see when plotting an UNDER bet. Diving right into some of the key numbers we note that the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Charlotte so these two teams have a serious recent history of playing paced down basketball against one another. The recent offensive and defensive performance data for these two teams give us averages of 212.08 and 208.58 and we get one of our absolute favorite positions to be in and that is where the averages simply do not justify the posted line due to over inflation. Both teams OVER/UNDER combined record for the year is 44–36 so we should fully expect a regression back to the middle making the UNDER yet another great spot to bet given the scenarios. When it comes to pace of play Charlotte is 16 and Boston is 18 and with two teams at the bottom half of the list we get a highly favorable situation in terms of UNDER betting. We also note that the Hornets are 15 in possessions per game (going down) and the Celtics are the number 18 team in the league (dropping drastically) and so once again we are talking about two of the slower teams in the league leading to lessened amount of offensive looks which makes for a perfect UNDER play on such a high total. The public consensus for this game is 55% in favor of the over so we get the nice general consensus public fade that we always like to have on our side in this UNDER play as well. The computer predicted scoring outcome of this game is 220 so a 215.5 UNDER play given all the above looks like it should get us where we need to go despite being slightly off from the AI analysis.
Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics - Monday, January 16, 2017 7:35 PM
511 Charlotte Hornets +5 -110 +175
512 Boston Celtics -5 -110 -210
511 Charlotte Hornets Over 215½ -110
512 Boston Celtics Under 215½ -110
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
UNDER 215.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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