Pick #1 – Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets
Flying high on a 7 game win streak its hard to imagine most any team besides the Spurs playing better basketball then the Warriors right now. Even the Nuggets have been no slouch lately getting a lot healthier and in the same process winning two out of there last three and showing a bit of that competitive spark again. Those streaks are mild compared to this NBA stat though. Ready. The total has gone over in 16 of Golden State's last 22 games. On top of this The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games at home. Yes you read that right. The first time these two teams met earlier in the year it resulted in a Warriors 119 - 104 home win performance by the Warriors giving even more confidence to the potential of this NBA total going over. In this game the home courts are reversed so the Nuggets are going to really have to fight and play the Warriors game in this one if they expect to keep up in front of the home crowd which is much more likely to lend itself to a fast paced, high scoring strategy on both sides of the ball. Both teams combine to score for 212.7 points and combine to give up 205.1 putting us at the edge of the actually total. Looking at the consensus on bets for today the over /under for this game has a large position on one side showing 95% on the over. Opening at 211 or 212 depending on where you shop your lines it is becoming very clear that the smart money is flowing in on the over as we have now seen the line move up to 213.5. The smart money is leaning this bet to the over great reason to think hitting this over should be no problem at all. Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road and Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home so this should a battle of Nuggets fighting with everything they got to stay close at home. Both teams are great inside and rebounding teams ((Nuggets) No. 8 (Warriors) No. 4) but miss matched from outs side (Nuggets) No. 16 (Warriors) No. 1) so there should be a lot of scoring and easy points inside and out which should hopefully push the score up. One near confirmed rumor is that Draymond Green might sit oout and rest the next few games starting with tonight. As Denver has a lot of healthy big men Farried, Arthur, Nurkic, Jokic etc. this should really lead to a whole down low for the Warriors and open up the scoring and points even more pushing a lot the Warriors offense to the outside and giving the Nuggets a chance to dominate inside. Lets look to bank on the smart money here and we will take the over 213.5.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016 9:05 PM
513 Golden State Warriors -9½
514 Denver Nuggets +9½
513 Golden State Warriors Over 213½
514 Denver Nuggets Under 213½
Betting odds provided by 5Dimes
Over 213.5 (2 Units)
As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting!
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